Sunday, December 07, 2003


Welcome to the Party

So on December 7, I am confident in saying that the labor recovery has started and only terrorism and rampant snow will affect it. We hada big snow in New York the past few days but that will just affect Christmas numbers at the stores. People will be shopping later (no one was on the roads yesterday) and will be buying as prices come down further. That will eventually ripple through the system but the recovery train (I believe) has left the track.

All the firms I'm speaking with are spending on new hiring and on getting in consultants NOW (and for the past few months). Large and small, they're all doing it. Wall Street is back . . . but wages are not. They will remain modest for a awhile yet while firms still operate with the belief that they can demand wageconcessions and cap offers.

That will start to end next eyar as firms discover that they lose applicants that they want because they have MULTIPLE OFFERS. This phenomena has been rarely seen for several years but, I expect, will be back in 2004.

It's like saying welcome to the party but you're the first guests here.

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