December, 2006

December, 2006

Well, another year is about to enter the books and this one has been extremely good to job hunters.

This was my January, 2006 column;

There is nothing like two weeks with a lighter than usual schedule to put the bloom back in a search professionals cheeks and the smile back into his or her face again. A few years ago, we all came back from the Christmas-New Year’s holidays looking at one another and wondering what to do.

Today, I came back (I now live in Milford, PA and I work from home when it snows as it did yesterday) and my office was energetic and so was I. We all have work to do. Clients we haven’t spoken with in years are asking for help. It is a good time to be in my line of work.

And look at the news. CIO magazine in it’s January 1, 2006 survey reports that 55% of CIO’s expect to increase staff size by an average of 11%. Only 9% plan on cutting personnel. This is a radical departure from a few years ago.

And the Wall Street Journal points out that India is developing a talent shortage. Yes, many of the Indian companies are starting to go to China for staff but that will, again, prove an inadequate solution.

Where is the growth projected? Although many point to that old favorite, the midlevel professional, as the area of growth, frankly there are not enough midlevel people to meet demand.

Another area of growth is with project managers, continuing the pattern we forecast beginning in 2004 with the end of the tech recession.

Wages should continue to grow but, for a while they will be at the same snail’s pace as we have seen for several years. By the third quarter or end of year, I expect wages to start to sail based upon continuous need meeting continuous shortage. The problem is not unique to one part of the country or one sector. A large professional services firm expects to hire 50 program managers and 50 enterprise architects. Another wants 45 Websphere portal professionals, 30 in Siebel, 80 with SAP skills and on and on.

A friend of mine, Hal Klegman from Roy Talman & Associates in Chicago, told me a story today of speaking to a group of studentsand correcting the guidance counselor present. The guidance counselor (and the media) have been telling a persistent story of the tech sector being dead. Hal corrected them saying that it is very much alive. I’ll go a step further.

In the stock and commodity markets, when everyone tells you it’s time to buy, I have learned that it is time to sell. The reverse is also true. When everyone is telling you that an entire industry like tech is dead, you wait for a while and ride the comeback trail with it.

Because the last recession was the first to affect tech, the naysayers and doom and gloomers spoke loud and hard. Kids watched their parents out of work for long periods of time. The number of Computer Science grads at US universities (take out the foreign born students on F-1 visas here) is down dramatically. This should tell you it’s time to get your children interested in business and technology . . . again.

So where are we going? Barring an act of terrorism or war, I continue to see a lot of opportunity and not enough people for them.

Pretty accurate?

Yesterday, I read a column in Crain’s New York with a headline to the tune of “All I want for Christmas is a programmer or two.” Yes, technology has begun what will be a fantastic ride—barring terrorism.

Managers in technology always find it a bit more difficult, because they tend to be wed to one way of doing things that may not translate to other organizations well. If you can avoid that trap, if you can be mobile, of you can demonstrate experience that transfers to other industries, you’ll do well.

Experience in accounting and auditing remains strong, with hedge fund experience being a glamour area. I recently moved someone from public to a position in industry. She was a senior auditor with hedge experience making $80000 plus a modest bonus. She received $115000 plus a larger bonus, 4 weeks vacation plus a VP title. She had one other offer at that level but at an Assistant Director level plus another from a bank at around that point but as an Assistant Manager.

Continuous need is meeting continuous shortage and firms are starting to get nervous. I did an interview with The Wall Street Journal and relayed a story to them about one of my clients that was looking for J2EE developers and three years before could get the pick they wanted. Now, they weren’t meeting anyone. Google has started to stgreamline their hiring process, learning that, although they are the current employer of choice, the “it” company, that others were moving faster on the people they were interested in and Google was not attracting enough good people to meet demand.

And, to me, this is the pivot point for the economy in general.

The economy has been inflated for several years—the post 9/11 era under President Bush has consisted of guns and butter—heavy spending on the war and on defense; heavy spending on programs. With a Democratic Congress, 2008 being the end of the Bush Presidency (the Dow has never finished up in the last year of a two term American Presidency), labor shortages and associated salary increases will start to inflate costs, reduce profits, and keep companies from meeting goals,

In other words, it is not the problems in the housing sector that keep me worried, but those in the labor market that keep me up at night.

Manufacturing is continuing to go abroad and cost jobs here (If you read my blog with any regularity, you’ll know that already). Pharma is doing well; banks and investment firm profits are extraordinary and bonuses this year will be terrific. There is even a dotcom sector again!

Yet, without people, businesses will start to implode and seek merger partners that will cause them to consolidate their ambitions and bring the boom to an end.

Unless s Democratic Congress gets a case of “religion” and listens to business leaders and agree to increase the H1b program and permit foreign nationals to come to the US in greater numbers, unless companies take up the cause of training their own employees for new roles, the economy will start to slow down and bring the good times to an end.

In the mean time, do the things that will help you emain marketable.

Jeff Altman

The Big Game Hunter
Concepts in Staffing
jeffaltman@cisny.com

© 2006 all rights reserved.

Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter, is Managing Director with Concepts in Staffing, a New York search firm, He has successfully assisted many corporations identify management leaders and staff in technology, accounting, finance, sales, marketing and other disciplines since 1971. He is a certified leader of the ManKind Project, a not for profit organization that assists men with life issues, and a practicing psychotherapist.

To receive a daily digest of positions emailed to you, search job openings, use his free meta job lead tool, Job Search Universe that searches more than 1600 employment sites worldwide, or to subscribe Jeff’s free job search ezine, Head Hunt Your Next Job, go to, http://www.jeffaltman.com. To subscribe to Jeff’s free recruiting ezine, Natural Selection Ezine, subscribe at www.naturalselectionezine.com For information about personal search services, go to www.VIPPersonalSearch.com.

If you would like Jeff and his firm to assist you with hiring staff, or if you would like help with a strategic job change, send an email to him at jeffaltman@cisny.com (If you’re looking for a new position, include your resume).