Jobless claims fall, leading indicator slips
By Nancy Waitz
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A surprise drop in the number of new claims filed for jobless aid pointed to a healthy U.S. labor market, but a forward-looking measure of the economy showed momentum has slowed, data released on Thursday showed.
Initial filings for state unemployment insurance aid fell for the third straight week and to the lowest in six weeks, dropping to 316,000 in the week ended March 17 from an upwardly revised 320,000 for the prior week, the Labor Department said.
Jobless claims are at a level economists see as consistent with steady employment growth.
"The data hints that March's payroll numbers will be stronger than a weather-depressed February," said David Sloan, an economist for 4CAST Ltd.
In February, the U.S. economy added 97,000 jobs, the smallest gain in two years, with weather taking its toll. Construction employment fell 62,000, probably prompted in part by cold and stormy weather in much of the country.
Thursday's data had no impact on the U.S. Treasury market as investors focused instead on taking profits following Wednesday's hefty rally after the Federal Reserve in a statement on its policy meeting dropped an explicit reference to the possibility of future interest rate increases.
The Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent at its meeting on Wednesday, as expected.
In a separate report, the private Conference Board said its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.5 percent in February following a 0.3 percent drop in January and 0.7 percent rise in December.
"Despite declines in both January and February, the cumulative change over the past six months remains positive," Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.
"The housing and manufacturing sectors are clearing going through a correction, but the consumer sector appears to be holding up. That mix should generate moderate but choppy growth ahead," Goldstein said.
In the weekly jobless report, there were no special factors behind the decline in new claims, which fell to their lowest level since the week ended February 3, a Labor Department analyst said.
"Claims will likely be volatile over the next few weeks as Easter approaches. The holiday falls eight days earlier this year than last, causing potentially significant problems for the seasonals," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.
"Claims could easily drop sharply over the next couple of weeks before rebounding in early April," he said.
For a more conclusive picture of the job market, economists will have to wait until next month when the government releases its monthly payrolls report for March.
Analysts on Wall Street had expected claims, which provide a rough guide to the pace of layoffs, to rise to 324,000 from the 318,000 initially reported for the March 10 week.
A four-week moving average of claims, which smooths weekly volatility to provide a better sense of underlying job-market trends, also fell for the second straight week, dropping to 326,000 from 329,750 in the prior week.
The total number of unemployed still on the benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid fell 69,000 to 2.50 million in the week ended March 10, the latest period for which figures are available.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A surprise drop in the number of new claims filed for jobless aid pointed to a healthy U.S. labor market, but a forward-looking measure of the economy showed momentum has slowed, data released on Thursday showed.
Initial filings for state unemployment insurance aid fell for the third straight week and to the lowest in six weeks, dropping to 316,000 in the week ended March 17 from an upwardly revised 320,000 for the prior week, the Labor Department said.
Jobless claims are at a level economists see as consistent with steady employment growth.
"The data hints that March's payroll numbers will be stronger than a weather-depressed February," said David Sloan, an economist for 4CAST Ltd.
In February, the U.S. economy added 97,000 jobs, the smallest gain in two years, with weather taking its toll. Construction employment fell 62,000, probably prompted in part by cold and stormy weather in much of the country.
Thursday's data had no impact on the U.S. Treasury market as investors focused instead on taking profits following Wednesday's hefty rally after the Federal Reserve in a statement on its policy meeting dropped an explicit reference to the possibility of future interest rate increases.
The Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent at its meeting on Wednesday, as expected.
In a separate report, the private Conference Board said its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.5 percent in February following a 0.3 percent drop in January and 0.7 percent rise in December.
"Despite declines in both January and February, the cumulative change over the past six months remains positive," Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.
"The housing and manufacturing sectors are clearing going through a correction, but the consumer sector appears to be holding up. That mix should generate moderate but choppy growth ahead," Goldstein said.
In the weekly jobless report, there were no special factors behind the decline in new claims, which fell to their lowest level since the week ended February 3, a Labor Department analyst said.
"Claims will likely be volatile over the next few weeks as Easter approaches. The holiday falls eight days earlier this year than last, causing potentially significant problems for the seasonals," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.
"Claims could easily drop sharply over the next couple of weeks before rebounding in early April," he said.
For a more conclusive picture of the job market, economists will have to wait until next month when the government releases its monthly payrolls report for March.
Analysts on Wall Street had expected claims, which provide a rough guide to the pace of layoffs, to rise to 324,000 from the 318,000 initially reported for the March 10 week.
A four-week moving average of claims, which smooths weekly volatility to provide a better sense of underlying job-market trends, also fell for the second straight week, dropping to 326,000 from 329,750 in the prior week.
The total number of unemployed still on the benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid fell 69,000 to 2.50 million in the week ended March 10, the latest period for which figures are available.
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