The Market: August, 2007: Game, Set & Match

On Fridays, I work from home and take a break to watch CNBC Power Lunch at midday. The jobs report was issued, yet again, showing few jobs created, more layoffs from the implosion of the real estate industry and, generally, a show that focused on fear in the markets.

After watching the first 45 minutes, I emailed this letter:

For much of the past year, pundits have been misinterpreting the job reports data as being indicative of a slowing economy when, in fact, it has been the first indicator of the labor shortage that will be the economic crisis facing America in the next decade.

More than 70 million Boomers are slated to retire in the next 7 years; even with the impending recession extending that to 10 years, approximately 20% of the US population will be leaving the workforce at some point over the next decade.

Given that we would have accepted 20 million illegal aliens into the economy with the immigration bill, we are 50 million workers short.

Here's where we are now:

1.8% unemployment for those with a college degree or better
A number that matches the unemployment rate for those with a high school diploma
Over 7% unemployment for those without a high school diploma

Now, as we approach the fourth quarter,( in what I believe will be a repeat of the Reagan recession that occurred in his first year in office) what CFO in their right mind is going to approve significant new hiring in the US given the calamities in the market we are hearing about now and will fulfill the prophecy that they will be hearing about in the media for the next 30 days.

As a result, we will have layoffs in 2008, with older politically savvy workers being extremely vocal just as we come up on a US Presidential campaign (Reagan and Bush II at least had the advantage of having a crisis in the their first year of their Presidency. Bush II, like Bush I, will have his in the last year.

The result will be candidate pandering to the unemployed offering solutions that run counter to what our immediate needs are-- dramatically increasing H-1b immigration to the US to provide the skilled labor pool that we will need during the next up tick.

Without that new labor pool, who will be paying for Social Security? Who will replace the Boomers in the work force? Where will new hires come from when the Boomers leave?

Unless Congress operates in a counterintuitive manner, we will look back at the last two weeks as the end of the American Dream and the beginning of the replacement of America in the forefront of the world economy.

--
Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter*
Concepts in Staffing
www.jeffaltman.com
www.thebiggamehunter.net
TheJobMarketBlog

*TM, The Big Game Hunter, Inc, 2007
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If you have read my blog at all for the past few years, I have been extremely optimistic about the direction of the labor market and had seen some data recently that caused me concern. Today, I believe I saw what I can best be described as the beginning of what, I believe will be a repetition of the Reagan recession from 1980--a media inflicted recession if I ever saw one.

My advice for you is very simple--if you are out of work, find work as fast as you can. If you need to take "a hair cut" (a salary reduction) in order to find something, do it NOW.

I believe next year will be a tough year-- Aand I would be extremely happy if I am wrong on this call.

Jeff Altman
The Big Game Hunter
Concepts in Staffing
thebiggamehunter@cisny.com

© 2007 all rights reserved.

Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter, is Managing Director with Concepts in Staffing, a New York search firm, He has successfully assisted many corporations identify management leaders and staff in technology, accounting, finance, sales, marketing and other disciplines since 1971. He is a former certified leader of the ManKind Project, a not for profit organization that assists men with life issues, and a practicing psychotherapist.

To subscribe to Jeff’s free job search ezine, Head Hunt Your Next Job, or receive a daily digest of positions emailed to you, go to http://www.jeffaltman.com

If you would like Jeff and his firm to assist you with hiring staff, or if you would like help with a strategic job change, send an email to him at jeffaltman@cisny.com (If you’re looking for a new position, include your resume).