Italy unemployment rate halts long-running fall
By Gavin Jones
ROME, March 20 (Reuters) - Italy's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was stable in the fourth quarter of 2007 at 6.0 percent, the first time for four years that it failed to decline, data showed on Thursday.
National statistics institute ISTAT revised up the third quarter rate from 5.9 percent.
An ISTAT official said the data showed "a series of negative aspects" including a decline in new jobs and an increase in youth unemployment which rose year-on-year for the first time in two years.
The data is a warning signal for whoever wins an April 13-14 general election that even the labour market, which has held up well in recent years, is likely to deteriorate as economic growth weakens.
Employment declined quarter-on-quarter by 0.2 percentage points, the first fall since the third quarter of 2006.
"This is a first sign that in the next quarters and years we won't see any continuation of the decline in joblessness we have had for numerous years," said Paolo Mameli of Intesa Sanpaolo.
"Job growth and those seeking work are both slowing down, the economic cycle is weakening and this will also be reflected in employment data."
The seasonally adjusted jobless rate of 6.0 percent was above the mid-point forecast of 5.9 percent in a Reuters survey of analysts.
Despite a progressively less buoyant labour market, the average jobless rate of 6.1 percent over the whole of 2007 was down from 6.8 percent the year before and was the lowest since the series began in 1993.
However, the inactivity rate, indicating those who are neither working nor seeking work, also rose, a sign of more people giving up the search for work.
On an unadjusted basis, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter rose to 6.6 percent from 5.6 percent the previous quarter due to seasonal factors.
On a year-on-year basis, the rate was down from 6.9 percent in Q4 2006 but ISTAT pointed out that the 0.3 point decline was smaller than in any quarter for two years.
In the less developed south of the country, seasonally adjusted employment fell by a steep 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Until the latest data Italian unemployment had constantly come in below expectations, flummoxing many analysts as it has fallen steadily, even when the economy stagnated, since the mid 1990s.
The current jobless rate would have been considered unthinkable in Italy a decade ago when unemployment stood well over 12 percent.
However, analysts say Italy's real challenge lies in raising its employment rate -- which remains well below the euro zone average despite the fall in joblessness -- and increasing its activity rate, or the sum of people working or looking for work.
Currently, Italy has a lower unemployment rate than Germany, France and many other euro zone partners, but it also has fewer people in work and participating in the labour market, a factor which weighs on economic growth.
(Editing by Gerrard Raven)
ROME, March 20 (Reuters) - Italy's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was stable in the fourth quarter of 2007 at 6.0 percent, the first time for four years that it failed to decline, data showed on Thursday.
National statistics institute ISTAT revised up the third quarter rate from 5.9 percent.
An ISTAT official said the data showed "a series of negative aspects" including a decline in new jobs and an increase in youth unemployment which rose year-on-year for the first time in two years.
The data is a warning signal for whoever wins an April 13-14 general election that even the labour market, which has held up well in recent years, is likely to deteriorate as economic growth weakens.
Employment declined quarter-on-quarter by 0.2 percentage points, the first fall since the third quarter of 2006.
"This is a first sign that in the next quarters and years we won't see any continuation of the decline in joblessness we have had for numerous years," said Paolo Mameli of Intesa Sanpaolo.
"Job growth and those seeking work are both slowing down, the economic cycle is weakening and this will also be reflected in employment data."
The seasonally adjusted jobless rate of 6.0 percent was above the mid-point forecast of 5.9 percent in a Reuters survey of analysts.
Despite a progressively less buoyant labour market, the average jobless rate of 6.1 percent over the whole of 2007 was down from 6.8 percent the year before and was the lowest since the series began in 1993.
However, the inactivity rate, indicating those who are neither working nor seeking work, also rose, a sign of more people giving up the search for work.
On an unadjusted basis, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter rose to 6.6 percent from 5.6 percent the previous quarter due to seasonal factors.
On a year-on-year basis, the rate was down from 6.9 percent in Q4 2006 but ISTAT pointed out that the 0.3 point decline was smaller than in any quarter for two years.
In the less developed south of the country, seasonally adjusted employment fell by a steep 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Until the latest data Italian unemployment had constantly come in below expectations, flummoxing many analysts as it has fallen steadily, even when the economy stagnated, since the mid 1990s.
The current jobless rate would have been considered unthinkable in Italy a decade ago when unemployment stood well over 12 percent.
However, analysts say Italy's real challenge lies in raising its employment rate -- which remains well below the euro zone average despite the fall in joblessness -- and increasing its activity rate, or the sum of people working or looking for work.
Currently, Italy has a lower unemployment rate than Germany, France and many other euro zone partners, but it also has fewer people in work and participating in the labour market, a factor which weighs on economic growth.
(Editing by Gerrard Raven)
Labels: employment, Italy
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