Immigration Slows in Face of Economic Downturn
The economic downturn, coupled with a government crackdown on illegal immigration, is dramatically slowing immigration to the U.S., according to new data from the Census Bureau.
The data, and additional analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center, provide the first solid evidence that fewer foreigners are entering the U.S -- and some illegal immigrants who are already here may be returning home because of decreased opportunity.
The data, part of the Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey, shows that the country's foreign-born population grew by about 500,000 last year, about half the annual average between 2000 and 2007.
"Immigrants are much more attuned to the economy's ups and down in the U.S. than we thought before," said William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
The collapse of the housing market and the broader economic malaise that has followed have reduced the number of low-skilled jobs in construction and other sectors that are the mainstay of low-skilled Latin Americans, in particular. As opportunity in the U.S. dries up, fewer immigrants are coming, and those already here are struggling.
At the same time, the Bush Administration has been conducting high-profile raids at meatpacking plants and other worksites believed to employ undocumented workers, leading to a record number of arrests and deportations. Several states, such as Arizona, Oklahoma and Rhode Island, have introduced laws that seek to punish employers of illegal immigrants.
Driven by an economic expansion that leaned heavily on home building and service industries, the foreign-born population grew an average of about one million a year between 2000 and 2007. Roughly 56% of that total were foreign-born Hispanics. Last year, the number of foreign-born Hispanics who entered the U.S. dropped to about 358,000, compared with an average of roughly 558,000 a year between 2000 and 2007.
"There is a constant cost-benefit analysis that people who are thinking of coming to the U.S. are making," says Roberto Suro, a University of Southern California journalism professor who specializes in immigration. Given the current environment, "it makes sense that fewer people are coming," he says.
The foreign-born worker data only covers 2007, when the economy was much stronger than it is today. The country has shed 600,000 jobs through August, and unemployment has risen to 6.1%.
According to preliminary analysis of the data, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that annual arrivals from Mexico and Central America are down as much as 50% this year relative to 2007, to fewer than 150,000 and 75,000 a year, respectively. Undocumented immigrants represent about 80% of all Latin Americans who have arrived in the U.S. in the past decade.
"It could be the case that there are more people leaving than coming," says Jeff Passel, a demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, an independent think tank in Washington.
About 12 million illegal immigrants are believed to live in the U.S., but this number could also begin to shrink. According to Mr. Passel's analysis of government data, the flow of unauthorized migrants is about half what it was at its peak. There is no official tracking of illegal immigrants leaving the country, but immigrant-advocacy groups report that some are returning home.
"Many friends of mine are thinking of going back in December," says Braulio Gonzalez, a day-laborer organizer in Redondo Beach, Calif. "They are asking themselves, 'Why stay here: there are no jobs and we don't have legal papers.' "
Over the past year, thousands of lower-skilled jobs once held by immigrants have been lost, or the gains were much slower. About 77,000 construction jobs were shed between 2006 and 2007, compared with a gain of almost 359,000 in the year earlier period, according to Moody's Economy.com. Sectors including repair and maintenance and animal slaughtering added far fewer jobs in 2007 than in the year earlier. More than 20% of foreign born Hispanics are employed in construction. Foreign-born workers represented about 23% of workers in service jobs, such as restaurant and cleaning work, according to the Department of Labor.
Historical data indicate that arrivals from Latin America ebb and flow. The last time migrant flows to the U.S. slackened was during the 2001-2002 recession.
For immigrants already here, the picture is bleak: The Census Bureau reported last month that the income of households headed by a foreigner who is also not a U.S. citizen dropped 7.3% compared with a 4.1% rise between 2005 and 2006. Preliminary analysis by Pew Hispanic Center researchers indicates that Hispanic households have suffered an even greater decrease in income between 2006 and 2007.
"This drop in income is consistent with employment trends for Latino workers showing a sharp increase in unemployment beginning in late 2006," says Rakesh Kochhar, economist at the Pew Hispanic Center.
Meanwhile, immigrant advocates say they've observed a surge in the number of immigrants soliciting work outside convenience stores and home-improvement retailers. "More people are turning to day labor as they get laid off in other sectors of the economy," says Chris Newman, legal director of the National Day Laborer Organizing Network that has 41 affiliated groups across the country.
Fourteen states saw their foreign-born population decrease last year. In half of those states, a decline in the foreign-born Hispanic population contributed to the overall decline. The largest decline was in New Jersey, which saw its foreign-born population decrease by 23,000 last year, largely due to losses of Latin American immigrants. New Mexico, Colorado Montana and Nebraska also saw their foreign-born populations decline largely because of a loss of foreign-born Hispanics.
"From the business point of view, it has been an entirely contingent and disposable labor force," says Mr. Suro, the USC professor.
Indeed, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Latino workers -- many believed to be in the country illegally -- rushed to New Orleans for cleanup and reconstruction work. The scene is being replayed in Galveston and Houston, where hundreds of immigrants are welcome hands in the massive effort to return to normalcy after Hurricane Ike.
Write to Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com and Conor Dougherty at conor.dougherty@wsj.com
The data, and additional analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center, provide the first solid evidence that fewer foreigners are entering the U.S -- and some illegal immigrants who are already here may be returning home because of decreased opportunity.
The data, part of the Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey, shows that the country's foreign-born population grew by about 500,000 last year, about half the annual average between 2000 and 2007.
"Immigrants are much more attuned to the economy's ups and down in the U.S. than we thought before," said William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
The collapse of the housing market and the broader economic malaise that has followed have reduced the number of low-skilled jobs in construction and other sectors that are the mainstay of low-skilled Latin Americans, in particular. As opportunity in the U.S. dries up, fewer immigrants are coming, and those already here are struggling.
At the same time, the Bush Administration has been conducting high-profile raids at meatpacking plants and other worksites believed to employ undocumented workers, leading to a record number of arrests and deportations. Several states, such as Arizona, Oklahoma and Rhode Island, have introduced laws that seek to punish employers of illegal immigrants.
Driven by an economic expansion that leaned heavily on home building and service industries, the foreign-born population grew an average of about one million a year between 2000 and 2007. Roughly 56% of that total were foreign-born Hispanics. Last year, the number of foreign-born Hispanics who entered the U.S. dropped to about 358,000, compared with an average of roughly 558,000 a year between 2000 and 2007.
"There is a constant cost-benefit analysis that people who are thinking of coming to the U.S. are making," says Roberto Suro, a University of Southern California journalism professor who specializes in immigration. Given the current environment, "it makes sense that fewer people are coming," he says.
The foreign-born worker data only covers 2007, when the economy was much stronger than it is today. The country has shed 600,000 jobs through August, and unemployment has risen to 6.1%.
According to preliminary analysis of the data, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that annual arrivals from Mexico and Central America are down as much as 50% this year relative to 2007, to fewer than 150,000 and 75,000 a year, respectively. Undocumented immigrants represent about 80% of all Latin Americans who have arrived in the U.S. in the past decade.
"It could be the case that there are more people leaving than coming," says Jeff Passel, a demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, an independent think tank in Washington.
About 12 million illegal immigrants are believed to live in the U.S., but this number could also begin to shrink. According to Mr. Passel's analysis of government data, the flow of unauthorized migrants is about half what it was at its peak. There is no official tracking of illegal immigrants leaving the country, but immigrant-advocacy groups report that some are returning home.
"Many friends of mine are thinking of going back in December," says Braulio Gonzalez, a day-laborer organizer in Redondo Beach, Calif. "They are asking themselves, 'Why stay here: there are no jobs and we don't have legal papers.' "
Over the past year, thousands of lower-skilled jobs once held by immigrants have been lost, or the gains were much slower. About 77,000 construction jobs were shed between 2006 and 2007, compared with a gain of almost 359,000 in the year earlier period, according to Moody's Economy.com. Sectors including repair and maintenance and animal slaughtering added far fewer jobs in 2007 than in the year earlier. More than 20% of foreign born Hispanics are employed in construction. Foreign-born workers represented about 23% of workers in service jobs, such as restaurant and cleaning work, according to the Department of Labor.
Historical data indicate that arrivals from Latin America ebb and flow. The last time migrant flows to the U.S. slackened was during the 2001-2002 recession.
For immigrants already here, the picture is bleak: The Census Bureau reported last month that the income of households headed by a foreigner who is also not a U.S. citizen dropped 7.3% compared with a 4.1% rise between 2005 and 2006. Preliminary analysis by Pew Hispanic Center researchers indicates that Hispanic households have suffered an even greater decrease in income between 2006 and 2007.
"This drop in income is consistent with employment trends for Latino workers showing a sharp increase in unemployment beginning in late 2006," says Rakesh Kochhar, economist at the Pew Hispanic Center.
Meanwhile, immigrant advocates say they've observed a surge in the number of immigrants soliciting work outside convenience stores and home-improvement retailers. "More people are turning to day labor as they get laid off in other sectors of the economy," says Chris Newman, legal director of the National Day Laborer Organizing Network that has 41 affiliated groups across the country.
Fourteen states saw their foreign-born population decrease last year. In half of those states, a decline in the foreign-born Hispanic population contributed to the overall decline. The largest decline was in New Jersey, which saw its foreign-born population decrease by 23,000 last year, largely due to losses of Latin American immigrants. New Mexico, Colorado Montana and Nebraska also saw their foreign-born populations decline largely because of a loss of foreign-born Hispanics.
"From the business point of view, it has been an entirely contingent and disposable labor force," says Mr. Suro, the USC professor.
Indeed, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Latino workers -- many believed to be in the country illegally -- rushed to New Orleans for cleanup and reconstruction work. The scene is being replayed in Galveston and Houston, where hundreds of immigrants are welcome hands in the massive effort to return to normalcy after Hurricane Ike.
Write to Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com and Conor Dougherty at conor.dougherty@wsj.com
Labels: employment, immigrants
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