Baker: Employment Worse Than It Looks

The BLS imputed 143,000 jobs into the establishment data over the last three months based on its birth/death model. In the three months from September to November of last year BLS imputed just 117,000 jobs into the establishment data.

It is inconceivable that job growth in new firms over the last three months was larger this year than in the same months of 2007. When BLS revises these data base[s] next summer based on data from unemployment insurance records, it is virtually certain that November will show even more job loss than was reported today.

In short, as bad as the picture looks now, the reality is almost certainly worse. (Btw, reporters who cover the employment data should know about the birth/death imputations.)