Firms added 112,000 jobs in January, 2004 according to the US Department of Labor. This was seen as a disappointment by the stock market which expected a much greater number.

But in a different report, a survey of household, household reported an increase of 496,000 last month.

Why the difference?

Because the first survey record companies increasing payroll and the second includes self-employed and contract workers.

This is something we have been writing about since last summer--the beginning of the recovery as manifest by increased consultant utilization. This is usually the first phase of a labor recovery, particularly within information technology.

The survey does not speak about salary levels, rate scales or wages which, at the beginning of a cycle, tend to be very low with a demand for great numbers of skills.

To me, these reports and ourt own experience reflect the enthusiasm we have had for the labor market for several months and bodes well for the rest of the year--assuming no terrorist activity in the US.

It will probably not be enough to take away the sour feelings that many Americans have toward the President for various reasons.

You heard it here first. Bush will lose to whomever the Democratic nominee is--and it won't be close.