Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Employment up by nearly 32,000


A strong rise in employment in August means inflationary pressures will continue to pre-occupy the Reserve Bank of Australia, some economists believe.

The number of Australian residents with jobs rose by 31,900 (0.3 per cent) in August, seasonally adjusted, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

The rise, nearly twice what economists had expected, was dominated by full-time employment which was up by 29,100 (0.4 per cent).

Unemployment was at a 33-year low of 4.3 per cent for the fourth month in a row.
The figures are consistent with the spurt in economic growth starting in the December quarter of last year and continuing, according to the national accounts released on Tuesday, into the June quarter of this year.

There are some doubts over the economic outlook, thanks to weakness in the US economy and a rise in market interest rates around the world in response to the US sub-prime housing loans crisis.

This has led to some speculation that the RBA, along with other central banks, might cut their official interest rates to bring market rates back down.

That is undoubtedly a possibility, although it would be a high-risk option for the RBA.
The labour force figures confirm there is little margin for error for the RBA, as it ponders the inflationary risks posed by the strong growth in economic output and employment, and potential for those risks to be exacerbated by a rate cut that might turn out to be unnecessary.

The futures market still gives a rate hike by the year's end a better chance than a cut, pricing the cash rate for December at 6.57 per cent, compared with its current target of 6.50 per cent.

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