June, 2008
Posted on August 3, 2007, on the afternoon when we all learned the meaning of the term "sub-prime mortgage, " I wrote a blog post called Game, Set and Match. In it, I wrote the following:
If you have read my blog at all for the past few years, I have been extremely optimistic about the direction of the labor market and had seen some data recently that caused me concern. Today, I believe I saw what I can best be described as the beginning of what, I believe, will be a repetition of the Reagan recession from 1980--a media inflicted recession if I ever saw one.
My advice for you is very simple--if you are out of work, find work as fast as you can. If you need to take "a hair cut" (a salary reduction) in order to find something, do it NOW.
I believe next year will be a tough year-- and I would be extremely happy if I am wrong on this call.
My description of this as a media induced recession was inaccurate but what I wrote was accurate. We are now at the point where we can say with certainty that the US economy has slowed down and that hiring has slowed as well.
I hope you landed in a new job quickly but, if you haven't, the advice of finding something quickly remains critical. The average job search takes 18 weeks. For "older workers" (those in their 50's, it takes approximately half a year.
And that was the statistic in 2004 when the economy was fairly strong. What happens now when we are in recession?
If you are an employer, you are seeing your requirements reduced and you are probably being more particular with your staffing. Have you started to look at pay-per-click as part of your recruiting strategy?
Pay per click advertising can be extremely targeted to a specific job or used to promote your firm's brand and bring people to your website and career page.
Have you started to consider re-hiring former employees who become available or having manager send out "feelers" to former subordinates whose firms are experiencing financial hardships?
Oh, I also wrote,
If you have read my blog at all for the past few years, I have been extremely optimistic about the direction of the labor market and had seen some data recently that caused me concern. Today, I believe I saw what I can best be described as the beginning of what, I believe, will be a repetition of the Reagan recession from 1980--a media inflicted recession if I ever saw one.
My advice for you is very simple--if you are out of work, find work as fast as you can. If you need to take "a hair cut" (a salary reduction) in order to find something, do it NOW.
I believe next year will be a tough year-- and I would be extremely happy if I am wrong on this call.
My description of this as a media induced recession was inaccurate but what I wrote was accurate. We are now at the point where we can say with certainty that the US economy has slowed down and that hiring has slowed as well.
I hope you landed in a new job quickly but, if you haven't, the advice of finding something quickly remains critical. The average job search takes 18 weeks. For "older workers" (those in their 50's, it takes approximately half a year.
And that was the statistic in 2004 when the economy was fairly strong. What happens now when we are in recession?
If you are an employer, you are seeing your requirements reduced and you are probably being more particular with your staffing. Have you started to look at pay-per-click as part of your recruiting strategy?
Pay per click advertising can be extremely targeted to a specific job or used to promote your firm's brand and bring people to your website and career page.
Have you started to consider re-hiring former employees who become available or having manager send out "feelers" to former subordinates whose firms are experiencing financial hardships?
Oh, I also wrote,
" . . . we will have layoffs in 2008, with older politically savvy workers being extremely vocal just as we come up on a US Presidential campaign (Reagan and Bush II at least had the advantage of having a crisis in the first year of their Presidency. Bush II, like Bush I, will have his in the last year.
The result will be candidate pandering to the unemployed offering solutions that run counter to what our needs are-- dramatically increasing H-1b immigration to the US to provide the skilled labor pool that we will need during the next up tick.
Without that new labor pool, who will be paying for Social Security? Who will replace the Boomers in the work force? Where will new hires come from when the Boomers leave?
Unless Congress operates in a counterintuitive manner, we will look back at the last two weeks as the end of the American Dream and the beginning of the replacement of America in the forefront of the world economy."
The result will be candidate pandering to the unemployed offering solutions that run counter to what our needs are-- dramatically increasing H-1b immigration to the US to provide the skilled labor pool that we will need during the next up tick.
Without that new labor pool, who will be paying for Social Security? Who will replace the Boomers in the work force? Where will new hires come from when the Boomers leave?
Unless Congress operates in a counterintuitive manner, we will look back at the last two weeks as the end of the American Dream and the beginning of the replacement of America in the forefront of the world economy."
Personally, I don't believe there is a chance of Congress increasing H-1b visas this year; instead they will be rushing off for summer vacation and adjourning in early September to campaign for re-election.
Tell me something the Democrats have done for the economy since taking office except complain and criticize? The Republicans at least cut taxes when they needed to be cut. The Democrats want to let these tax cuts end creating a de facto increase just as Americans are experiencing increased gas prices, financial pressures from sub-prime and how their financial piggy bank (their homes) have been cut off.
Not too smart.
Jeff Altman
The Big Game Hunter
Concepts in Staffing
thebiggamehunter@cisny.com
© 2008 all rights reserved.
Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter, is Managing Director with Concepts in Staffing, a New York search firm, He has successfully assisted many corporations identify management leaders and staff in many disciplines since 1971. He is a retired certified leader of the ManKind Project, a not for profit organization that assists men with life issues, and a practicing psychotherapist.
Concepts in Staffing
thebiggamehunter@cisny.com
© 2008 all rights reserved.
Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter, is Managing Director with Concepts in Staffing, a New York search firm, He has successfully assisted many corporations identify management leaders and staff in many disciplines since 1971. He is a retired certified leader of the ManKind Project, a not for profit organization that assists men with life issues, and a practicing psychotherapist.
He is the author of “Get Yourself Hired NOW! The Big Game Hunter’s Guide to Head Hunting Your Next Job and Every Job After That” (in ebook and audio formats) and “Get Your Job Search Organized NOW!” (ebook) Both are available at www.getyourselfhiredNOW.com Register at the site and you will receive free copies of The International Job Board List and a Guide to Resume Writing.
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