No Sign Of Improvement In IT Job Market March 18, 2003
InformationWeek
A new analysis of wage trends indicates that the average salary increases the rest of this year will be minimal.
By Eric Chabrow
The job market for professionals and technologists won't get better anytime soon, resulting in employers limiting salary increases in the next half year, an analysis of government and private economic data suggests.
"The demand for professional and technical workers has slackened," says economist Joel Popkin, whose consulting firm designed the Wage Trend Indicator, a tool designed to predict and interpret trends in U.S. private-industry wages. The latest Wage Trend Indicator report was released Tuesday by BNA Inc., a publisher for the legal and regulatory communities. "That finding is consistent with weakness we've seen in the official employment report, showing significant job losses among white-collar industries."
After eight straight quarters of decline, the index has settled at 1.6% below its end-of-2000 level. Popkin, a former Bureau of Labor Statistics official, says the lack of movement accentuates employers' restrained hiring plans for professional and technical employees and economists' anticipation that higher energy prices will have a short-lived influence on overall inflation.
The revised reading of the index for the first quarter is 98.59, virtually unchanged from 98.56 in the fourth quarter. An index of 100 represents conditions in 1976. The index is aimed to signal turning points in private wage trends six to nine months before they appear in the employment cost index, compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over its eight quarters of decline, according to BNA, the index accurately signaled moderation in private-industry wage gains--from annual increases of 4.2% in 2000 to 2.7% in 2002.
InformationWeek
A new analysis of wage trends indicates that the average salary increases the rest of this year will be minimal.
By Eric Chabrow
The job market for professionals and technologists won't get better anytime soon, resulting in employers limiting salary increases in the next half year, an analysis of government and private economic data suggests.
"The demand for professional and technical workers has slackened," says economist Joel Popkin, whose consulting firm designed the Wage Trend Indicator, a tool designed to predict and interpret trends in U.S. private-industry wages. The latest Wage Trend Indicator report was released Tuesday by BNA Inc., a publisher for the legal and regulatory communities. "That finding is consistent with weakness we've seen in the official employment report, showing significant job losses among white-collar industries."
After eight straight quarters of decline, the index has settled at 1.6% below its end-of-2000 level. Popkin, a former Bureau of Labor Statistics official, says the lack of movement accentuates employers' restrained hiring plans for professional and technical employees and economists' anticipation that higher energy prices will have a short-lived influence on overall inflation.
The revised reading of the index for the first quarter is 98.59, virtually unchanged from 98.56 in the fourth quarter. An index of 100 represents conditions in 1976. The index is aimed to signal turning points in private wage trends six to nine months before they appear in the employment cost index, compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over its eight quarters of decline, according to BNA, the index accurately signaled moderation in private-industry wage gains--from annual increases of 4.2% in 2000 to 2.7% in 2002.
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