Wednesday, June 02, 2004

June, 2004--What a Feeling


The seeds of bull markets are sown during bad markets. Fewer people consider entering a field during down times; people leave the industry because they cannot find work or work at their old salary levels. Wages go down.

But when firms start hiring again, the pool of available talent is much thinner to choose from. In some cases, dominant skills demanded by the marketplace have changed and firms start to raise salary levels (and agency fees) to levels higher than the previous boom cycle. It takes time, but this has happened in every boom and bust cycle that I have seen since I started to do technology recruiting in 1972.

In July, 2004, we are seeing firms hiring again. They are not throwing money at new hires, prefering, instead to be cautious. Yet they are hiring. Most firms are asking us to do increased pre-screening, providing us with a series of evaluation questions and answers to work with prior to submitting a resume.

Consulting utilization is continuing to be strong. Try-buys (take the person as consultant before hiring them to full time staff) is back and outright hiring has returned. Consultants are not usually reflected in the government statistics because many are self-employed, rather than employees; the government instead samples large companies. Thus, when you see the job creation numbers coming out soon, understand that these numbers probably understate the growth in the labor market significantly.

I spoke with someone today who was laid off around the middle of last year and who, after a spurt of effort had given up trying. He said he decided to get back into the market because he had seen a big improvement in the number of calls he was getting about jobs.

In September, 2001, I encouraged people to do anything they could to get work; that this recession was going to be the worst I had seen since I entered the field.

It's over. Now is the time to hustle. Use your contacts and connect with recruiters. You can get work again.

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