From Reuters:

Gartner Sees Tech Spending Accelerating Up to 2006
Mon October 20, 2003 06:08 PM ET
By Eric Auchard
ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) - Technology spending is poised to return to solid growth in 2004 and beyond as companies shift from cost-cutting to focus on innovation that drives sales, a top computer consulting group said on Monday.

At its annual conference this week, Gartner Inc. is advising its base of 10,000 corporate and government clients to spend more in 2004 on wireless networks, Web services and technologies that help businesses grow, not just save costs.

"Gartner is telling you a big turn is coming," Michael Fleisher, the consulting company's chairman and chief executive, said in a speech to some 6,000 corporate technology purchasing decision makers attending the Gartner Symposium conference in Orlando, Fla.

"2004 will be the year that companies make the turn from protecting profitability to driving growth," Fleisher said. He said sweeping new technology changes will be at hand as spending accelerates modestly in 2005 and 2006.

"We believe that '06 will look as different when compared with '03 as '03 looks when compared with '99," Fleisher said, referring to what he sees as a projected upturn and to the previous boom years.

Still, the upbeat outlook was tempered by a call for companies to continue to cut expenses by switching to lower-cost PC hardware and outsourcing software and services to lower-cost, often overseas, technology suppliers.

The Stamford, Connecticut, consulting firm estimates that 25 percent of all technology jobs will be centered in low-cost, developing-world countries such as India by 2008.

And technology buyers gathered at the conference -- everyone from Campbell Soup to the Mormon church to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency -- say they require proof of how they can save more money overall when spending on any new product or service.

Yet after a three-year downturn, Gartner now expects to see the first annual pickup in purchasing of computer services and wireless telecommunications this year and for solid growth in hardware and software to return in 2004.

Overall, Gartner forecasts global technology spending to grow 5.4 percent to $2.40 trillion in 2004 over the $2.27 trillion expected to be spent in 2003.

It forecasts yearly growth of around 5 percent in each subsequent year through 2007 to $2.77 trillion, representing solid growth in historical terms but only half the 9 percent to 10 percent growth rates seen in the late 1990s boom years.

The biggest gains are expected in computer hardware, which should grow 4.4 percent to $355 billion in 2004 from flat growth in 2003 and negative growth of 2.2 percent in 2002. Software is expected to jump to 7.0 percent from 2.2 percent growth this year and to average 8 percent growth through 2007.

FOUR THEMES AND A RESERVATION

Gartner says the vast bulk of corporate and government spending will remain focused on keeping core technology systems up and running or figuring out how to shave costs by running these operations or hiring outsiders to handle the work.

New technology purchases over the next two to three years will center on four themes, Fleisher said.

** Gartner foresees a rapid shift to secure, high-speed wireless networks within many organizations.

** The shift to a more mobile work force will increase as buying switches to notebook PCs from desktop computers and more organizations adopt wireless e-mail and other ways of staying connected while on the road.

** As more workers begin to enjoy constant network connections, demand for real-time access to company information in the form of Web-delivered services.

** These will require growing numbers of computer servers to capture all the new data created on these networks.

Gartner's message is based on a reading of macroeconomic tea-leaves that suggests a broad U.S. economic recovery is taking shape and steady corporate profit growth has returned.

But some technology vendors at the Gartner conference expressed reservations, saying that while spending patterns have stabilized over the past year or two, they have yet to see signs of a rise in computer budgets.

"This coming year is more of the same. I see more business as usual," said Joseph Marengi, who as general manager of Dell Americas division, oversees two-thirds of his company's sales. "I don't see any big uptick (in growth rates) on the horizon."

"No customer is telling us they have an extra $100 million to spend next year," Marengi said. "There is going to be a pool of money spent on new technology and that pool of money will be smaller than three years ago," he said.

From Datamation:

Older IT Workers Becoming Hot Commodity
October 16, 2003
By Sharon Gaudin


During the dot com craze, the pony tail and black T-shirt crowd ruled the office. Nerf hoops hung from the walls, lattes were the drink of choice, and foosball tables replaced boardroom tables. Young, work-all-night, wear-what-you-want was in.

And the suit-wearing, boardroom types were out. Anyone over 30 who owned a suit wasn't getting a foot in the door. Experience connoted unimaginative and boring. It was hard to be 35 and get a job. It was well near impossible if you were over 50.

But many, if not most, of those businesses went under. And they went under because no one was on board who had any business experience. It was all about cool technology and no one had any idea how to make a buck or how to manufacture the cool tool that was in some kid's head.

Well, the dot com bubble burst. The kids have had their BMWs repossessed and the suits are taking over.

Today, if you're over 50 with years of business experience, you're once again a hot commodity.

''A few years ago, it was a young person's game,'' says John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an international outplacement company based in Chicago. ''Certainly, in the dot coms the stereotypes of age discrimination were in full force. The environment was kind of like living in a college dorm. If you were over 40, you weren't going to get in. You just weren't going to be there.''

But a new report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas says that is no longer the case.

The median job search time for unemployed managers and executives 50 and older has dropped 10 times faster than that of younger job seekers over the last three quarters, the new report shows.

The report also notes that job search time has fallen for all age groups since the fourth quarter of 2002. But the drop in over-50 search times was much steeper, dropping 19 percent from 4.9 months in the fourth quarter last year to 4.0 months at the end of the third quarter this year. During the same time period, job seekers under 50 saw their search times drop by just 1.8 percent.

With the dramatic over-50 decline, that puts older workers in a virtual dead heat with those under 50, whose median search time is now 3.8 months. Challenger says he wouldn't be surprised to see older job seekers soon finding jobs faster than their younger counterparts.

''Now the companies that are making it have become much broader based,'' says Challenger, noting that it's now a much better time to be 50. ''Companies have recognized that experience is an essential piece of the puzzle. To bring that business experience on is crucial''

And Challenger says it wasn't just the dot coms keeping older workers at bay.

Big business wasn't quick to hire older workers, instead opting for younger people who might not have family requirements, would be more agreeable to working late and would accept a much smaller paycheck. ''If you lost your job in a big company, there was no way back in,'' adds Challenger. ''Today, big companies understand that if you bring somebody in who is 25, you're not going to be getting 20 years of experience. With an older worker, you may get more loyalty, more committmen and sometimes more of a work ethic. That means you'll be getting better employees.''

Gordon Haff, an analyst at Nashua, N.H.-based Illuminata, agrees that the dot coms weren't the only companies who avoided hiring older workers.

''They thought if you worked for a big company, you must be a fogy and you don't have the kind of ideas and imagination we need,'' says Haff. ''There was that kind of attitude and not just during the dot com boom.''

And Haff points out that the bigger, the more established a company is on an older worker's resume, the tougher it may be to get another job. If the company is perceived to be old and slow, so may be the worker.

''It's particularly true if it's a company that was viewed as some old-line, inflexible, old-age type of company,'' says Haff. ''Those perceptions are carried over to the person. If they were a go-getter, they would have left. If the company is perceived as unimaginative and slow and boring, those characteristics get carried over to workers.''

Both analysts agree that as companies begin to think of hiring again, they're more apt to be looking for experience over youth. That means for the over-50 set, the tables may be turning.

I've been doing a lot more business development and one thing is clear. Hiring is going to pick up in 2004. I spoke with two heads of infrastructure with hedge funds, one human resources person with a pharmaceutical firm and a head of risk with a bond house today. Each told me of few opportunities this year but new hiring expected to be approved for 2004.

What was even nicer was that two of them returned calls I made. This may not sound like much but in 2002 and early 2003, this just didn't happen very often.

There has been a noticeable change in activity in my office since the beginning of September that bodes well for the balance of the year and for 2004. The big change is that consulting utilization has picked up.

Why is that important?

Because firm's are using consultants to get a leg up on work taht they need for 2004.

What that means is that they're spending money NOW on staffing with the expectation that there will be further funding in 2004.

My Yahoogroup (which you can join by going to www.newyorkmetrotechnologyjobs.tk) carried more than 80 postings this month, the most since I started it in August 2001.

On Tuesday, I participated in a panel in a panel of recruiters discussing the current technology market for New York professionals at a netwoprking group for senior technology professionals. All of us reported that we had seen a recent noticeable pick up in hiring.

Hopefully, that means the end is very near.

Keep trying.

Sincerely,

Jeff Altman