Tuesday, October 30, 2007

700 ARE LAID OFF AT BOFA & BEAR


By RODDY BOYD

October 30, 2007 -- For Wall Street, Halloween is tilting heavily toward trick and away from treat as the bond departments of two brokerages announced layoffs yesterday.

Jimmy Cayne's Bear Stearns told employees that "approximately" 300 were being fired yesterday, while Banc of America Securities began letting go up to 400 as tumbling profits and expanding mortgage woes wreak havoc on their bottom lines.

In delivering the bad news about the cuts, the Bear memorandum was heavy with contemporary management buzzwords, noting, "We will continue to act prudently to rationalize our business, monitor staffing needs and align infrastructure with current market conditions."
A Bear spokesman declined comment beyond the layoff memo.

Although Bear cited the need to reduce costs in all product areas as being behind the layoffs, many were interpreting them as resulting from the massive drop-off in its crucial mortgage- and asset- backed securities trading and underwriting franchise.

Meanwhile, Banc of America Securities' layoffs yesterday were directed at the firm's struggling mortgage desk, where 45 to 50 traders and sales staff were cut.

The bank's corporate sales effort saw some firings as well. The investment-banking unit reported only $100 million in profit for the third quarter, a drop of over $1.3 billion.

In the wake of BofA Chief Executive Ken Lewis' blunt remarks last week - "I've had all the fun I can stand in investment banking right now," he said during a conference call to analysts - the likelihood of a layoff-driven retreat from trying to build a major investment bank has been seen as high.

A BofA spokesman declined comment.



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Monday, October 29, 2007

Malvern plant set to close, lay off 250


About 250 workers will lose their jobs by the time the Precision Industries die-casting plant in Malvern closes permanently in mid- to late December.

The decision to shutter the plant was “based on a number of factors, including the fact that it has been losing money, margins have been eroded by global competition and there have been inefficiencies we have been unable to overcome,” said the plant owner, Leggett & Platt Inc., in a fax on Friday.

The plant is one of the five largest employers in Malvern, Mayor Steve Northcutt said, and the layoff is the biggest in the city he could recall in recent years. Malvern in 2006 had a population of 9,046, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.


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Mortgage company to lay off 300


There's no word on how many PHH employees in Jacksonville will be let go.




By URVAKSH KARKARIA, The Times-Union


New Jersey-based mortgage company PHH will eliminate about 300 jobs at its Mount Laurel, N.J., and Jacksonville locations, citing the housing market slump.
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In an e-mail to PHH Mortgage employees, Chief Executive Officer Terence Edwards said affected workers will be offered severance packages and outplacement services.

It's not clear how many of the cuts will take place in Jacksonville. Calls to PHH were not returned Wednesday.

"Recent housing-market developments continue to negatively impact the level of originations and profitability of mortgage companies industry-wide," Edwards said in the e-mail, obtained by The Times-Union. "Like our competitors, we now find ourselves forced to implement a layoff."

Edwards left the door open for further pink slips.

"In the past, when we have reduced the number of our team players I was able to say the cuts were over for the foreseeable future," Edwards said in the e-mail. "This time, I am unable to promise that. We will continue to evaluate business flow and new client signings to determine if further reductions will be necessary."

The CEO said he hoped further cuts could be avoided by, among other things, signing new customers and clamping down on costs.

Earlier this year, PHH agreed to a $1.8 billion buyout by GE Capital Solutions. As part of that deal, GE plans to sell PHH's mortgage unit to Blackstone. But PHH announced last month that Blackstone is having money trouble, so the buyout might fall through. Blackstone received a letter from its lending group indicating that its funding plan might fall $750 million short of what it needs.

urvaksh.karkaria@jacksonville.com,


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PTCL allowed to layoff 29000 employees


The government on Thursday formally allowed the management of the Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) to lay off more than 29,000 employees under its Rs17 billion voluntary separation scheme (VSS).


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ResCap to Cut 25% of Workforce Today


The Wall Street Journal Online is reporting that Residential Capital, GMAC’s mortgage origination unit will lay off 25% of its workforce today. The unit, better known as ResCap, cost parent company GM nearly $1 billion in charges related to subprime loan quality issues when GMAC unloaded a 51% equity stake to Cerberus Capital Management (the same company that also purchased Option One from H&R Block).

From the Journal:

Residential Capital LLC, the home-lending arm of GMAC Financial Services, will announce a reduction of about 25% in its work force today, according to people familiar with the matter, joining a parade of lenders paring operations as loan demand slows and financing for mortgages tightens.

In recent quarters, weakness at ResCap has been a drag on GM’s bottom line. GM’s reported net income of $62 million in the first quarter fell well below the $602 million it posted in the first quarter of 2006, with GM recognizing a net loss of $115 million related to its GMAC investment. ResCap lost $910 million in the quarter, a staggering downturn.

Update: A bit more from the company itself:

The reduction in ResCap’s workforce was influenced by sharp downturns in the U.S. residential real estate markets and the global dislocation of the mortgage finance and credit markets. The mortgage industry continues to experience lower overall origination volumes; illiquidity in the secondary market; and adverse trends in home price appreciation.

As a result of the actions announced today, ResCap will incur restructuring charges, which are expected to range from $90 to $110 million, which will include costs related to severance and other employee-related costs of approximately $55 to $65 million and the closure of facilities of approximately $35 to $45 million. The majority of these charges will be incurred in the fourth quarter of 2007. Consolidated charges are expected to result in future cash expenditures of approximately $85 to $95 million.

The workforce reductions will include a range of administrative and managerial positions. Business units most affected by lower mortgage market origination volumes will incur the most reductions.

Ho-hum, another day, another layoff…




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Seagate to close N. Ireland plant


Chiquita announces major restructuring


Bank of America reshuffles struggling investment arm


Snocap cuts staff


Wall Street faces more job cuts, smaller bonuses


Saturday, October 27, 2007

Amid post-war boom, unemployment stalks Cambodia's brightest


Unemployment up in California in September


Governor Rendell Says Record High Job Count is Proof of PA's Economic Growth


Glaxo quarterly profit down; job cuts announced


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Novartis to cut more than 1,000 jobs in U.S.


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BBC unveils 1,800 job cuts


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GMAC Mortgage Unit To Cut 3,000 Jobs


Thursday, October 25, 2007

U.S. IT Talent Shortage Should Spur Policy Changes, Report Advises


The CPST calls for better programs for women and minorities in the face of 40% reductions of STEM-related bachelor degrees.

By K.C. Jones
InformationWeek
October 19, 2007 05:29 PM

Offshoring in China and India is having a negative impact on the number of U.S. computer science degrees, which has sent up a red flag with human resource management analysts.

The Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology wants policymakers to improve conditions for the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce. The CPST issued a report this week pointing out weaknesses in the United States' ability to compete with India, China, and other nations in those fields. The "STEM Workforce Data Project" results from nearly three years of data analysis on trends in the U.S. STEM workforce.

The nonprofit commission found that from 2001 to 2006, enrollments in bachelor's programs in computer science dropped 40% and many students stayed away from the field because of increased risk of job loss due to offshoring and other issues.

The report states that Americans have fewer incentives to continue education in STEM fields as more employers moving toward "on-demand" employment and students predict shorter tenure.

"This leaves STEM professionals especially vulnerable since keeping up with the pace of technology is critical to their employability," the commission explained.

The report states that there are several policy decisions that can help the STEM workforce, such as those in government procurement. It outlines several other areas where policymakers can make a difference, including: increasing federal research funding, scholarships; promoting continuing education; implementing sound immigration policies; improving labor market signals; and supporting re-entry into STEM careers.

"Changing one control variable, such as increasing degree production, will have multiple effects on the entire system, some of which may be desirable and others which may not," Ron Hira, assistant professor of public policy at Rochester Institute of Technology, said in a prepared statement.

Hira, who authored the report, said that policymakers should develop models to predict how policy decisions affect the STEM employment outlook immediately and over time.

"Of course, this also means recognizing and reconciling the conflicting values of the interested parties," he said. The report found that the United States is not doing enough to encourage women and underrepresented minorities to enter STEM fields, while older workers report unemployment and underemployment and employers complain about a shortage of STEM talent.

"When employers issue dire cautions about a lack of human supply, we intuitively expect the field in question to become more attractive, with degree production, employment levels and salaries rising accordingly," Lisa Frehill, executive director of CPST, said in a prepared statement. "But that hasn't happened with many STEM occupations, so we need to start looking at where the disconnects are."

Richard Ellis, author of several of the STEM Workforce Data Project reports, said that most people recognize the impact the STEM workforce has on the United States' ability to compete in the global economy and policies should reflected that.

The complete report is free, but users must register with the CPST Web site for access.


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U.S. IT Talent Shortage Should Spur Policy Changes, Report Advises


The CPST calls for better programs for women and minorities in the face of 40% reductions of STEM-related bachelor degrees.

By K.C. Jones
InformationWeek
October 19, 2007 05:29 PM

Offshoring in China and India is having a negative impact on the number of U.S. computer science degrees, which has sent up a red flag with human resource management analysts.

The Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology wants policymakers to improve conditions for the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce. The CPST issued a report this week pointing out weaknesses in the United States' ability to compete with India, China, and other nations in those fields. The "STEM Workforce Data Project" results from nearly three years of data analysis on trends in the U.S. STEM workforce.

The nonprofit commission found that from 2001 to 2006, enrollments in bachelor's programs in computer science dropped 40% and many students stayed away from the field because of increased risk of job loss due to offshoring and other issues.

The report states that Americans have fewer incentives to continue education in STEM fields as more employers moving toward "on-demand" employment and students predict shorter tenure.

"This leaves STEM professionals especially vulnerable since keeping up with the pace of technology is critical to their employability," the commission explained.

The report states that there are several policy decisions that can help the STEM workforce, such as those in government procurement. It outlines several other areas where policymakers can make a difference, including: increasing federal research funding, scholarships; promoting continuing education; implementing sound immigration policies; improving labor market signals; and supporting re-entry into STEM careers.

"Changing one control variable, such as increasing degree production, will have multiple effects on the entire system, some of which may be desirable and others which may not," Ron Hira, assistant professor of public policy at Rochester Institute of Technology, said in a prepared statement.

Hira, who authored the report, said that policymakers should develop models to predict how policy decisions affect the STEM employment outlook immediately and over time.

"Of course, this also means recognizing and reconciling the conflicting values of the interested parties," he said. The report found that the United States is not doing enough to encourage women and underrepresented minorities to enter STEM fields, while older workers report unemployment and underemployment and employers complain about a shortage of STEM talent.

"When employers issue dire cautions about a lack of human supply, we intuitively expect the field in question to become more attractive, with degree production, employment levels and salaries rising accordingly," Lisa Frehill, executive director of CPST, said in a prepared statement. "But that hasn't happened with many STEM occupations, so we need to start looking at where the disconnects are."

Richard Ellis, author of several of the STEM Workforce Data Project reports, said that most people recognize the impact the STEM workforce has on the United States' ability to compete in the global economy and policies should reflected that.

The complete report is free, but users must register with the CPST Web site for access.


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Sluggish hiring pushes Ohio unemployment up


Ohio's unemployment rate inched up to 5.9 percent in September as the labor force grew and hiring slowed, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services reported Friday.

The seasonally adjusted rate was up from 5.7 percent in August and has grown from 5.5 percent rate in September 2006.

The nation's jobless rate in September ticked up to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in August.

About 50,000 people last month entered the state's work force, which totaled 6 million, while nonfarm employment shrank by 2,600 workers to more than 5.4 million. The number of unemployed workers as a result grew 5 percent to 355,000 from 337,000 the month before.

The largest decline in number of workers last month came in the professional and business services sector, followed by educational and health services, the state said. Government employment grew the most over the month as non-teaching personnel returned to state and local education jobs, the department said.

The state plans to release Columbus-area employment data Tuesday.


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Monday, October 22, 2007

U.S. Tech Job Growth Continues


IT jobs have grown 6% the past year, and unemployment remains at 2%, according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

By Chris Murphy
InformationWeek
October 17, 2007 02:26 PM

U.S. IT employment continues on a growth path, rising 6% from a year ago to reach 3.68 million employed, according to the most-recent Bureau of Labor Statistics employment survey.

IT unemployment was 2%, according to an average of the past four quarters of BLS data, including its most recent third-quarter results. That unemployment rate is down from 2.2% in 2006 and as high as 5.6% in the third quarter of 2003. The total IT workforce, employed and unemployed, also grew about 6% from a year ago. The unemployment rate in management and professional jobs overall was also 2.0%.

The biggest job growth categories continue to be software engineers, computer scientists and systems analysts, and IS managers. Software engineers, the largest category, grew 8% from a year ago and make up a quarter of all IT jobs. Computer scientists and systems analysts also grew at 8%, making up 22% of tech jobs, while IS managers grew at 12% and now make up 12% of jobs. Two categories shrunk: programmers (15% of IT jobs) declined 5%, while support specialists (8% of jobs) declined 4%.

Network and system administrators (6% of jobs) grew 14%, network and data communications analysts (6% of jobs) grew 8%, and database administrators (3% of jobs) grew 27%. The BLS data is based on its household surveys, and job categories are based on interviews about what tasks respondents do.

The jobs statistics continue trends that have marked IT employment's slow recovery from a fierce downturn from 2002 to 2004, when IT employment fell below 3.3 million. In the second quarter of this year, IT employment was 3.58 million, based on an average of four quarters of data.



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Sunday, October 21, 2007

IT Employment Continues Move Sideways


Unemployment may be rooted out by 2008: Rangarajan


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BRAZIL HAS RECORD NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES HIRED


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Foreign labor in high demand in Denmark, report finds


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Running On Empty: Tech's Vanishing Circle Of Engineers


Employment outlook for Q4 dips


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Record low hiring of U.S. workers seen


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RCMP hits airwaves, web to fill imminent staffing 'gaps'


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Mullen announces temporary lay-offs


Onorato Budget Calls For Layoffs, Drink Tax


Thursday, October 18, 2007

PINK SLIPS GO TO 300 AT MORGAN STANLEY


By PAUL THARP
JOHN MACK
Axes 300 more workers.
JOHN MACK
Axes 300 more workers.
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October 18, 2007 -- Wall Street has lost another 870 jobs in October alone over the housing recession, with hundreds of firings still ahead at top firms this year, experts said.

John Mack's Morgan Stanley was the latest brokerage giant to announce its pink slips yesterday, with 300 jobs, most of them here, slated to disappear in coming weeks.

Nomura, the global Japanese investment bank, also said it is firing 400 pros here in its mortgage securities unit, which will shut down. Another 170 are being laid off at Credit Suisse operations here.

"This is definitely the worst year on record for Wall Street and the financial services industry layoffs," said James Pedderson of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which has tracked layoffs for 15 years.

Nearly 130,000 jobs in financial services already have been eliminated in the first nine months of the year, the company said.

"The question is how the loss of these high-paying financial services jobs impact cities such as New York and San Francisco where these positions are concentrated," said Pedderson.

In the mortgage industry itself, another 3,000 job cuts were announced yesterday at GMAC Financial Services. The company is restructuring its home mortgage group, Residential Capital LLC, and drastically scaling it down. The cuts are in addition to 2,000 announcedearlier.

The layoffs represent about 25 percent of its 12,000 mortgage employees.

Meanwhile, Mortgage Bankers Association economist Douglas Duncan said yesterday layoffs in his industry will soar in coming months.


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Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Ethiopia: Houses Agency to Layoff 2,350


A restructuring study underway by the Ministry of Works and Urban Development (MoWUD) and leading officials at the Rented Houses Agency (RHA) is to layoff over 2,350 of the latter's 2,800 employees. The shake-up, which is in the final stages, will squeeze the 33-year-old Agency into a single office under the Ministry.

The committee undertaking the study presented their final recommendations to Arkebe Oqubay, state minister of MoWUD, and Enwey Gebremedhin, Agency director under a state ministerial portfolio, last Monday.

One of the three subcommittees studied what the overall restructuring should look like while another dealt with the Agency's plans to set out in real estate development. The third subcommittee deliberated on arrangements by which houses under the Agency should be administered.

One of the proposed recommendations of the committee is to outsource security and cleaning works to a private company through contract or give the responsibility to the tenants themselves. If this proposal is approved, around 1,000 janitors and security workers are feared to loose their jobs, sources disclosed.

Outsourcing of housing repair works is also a component and has brought anxiety among the 600 workers that may lose their jobs. The most drastic turnabout follows RHA's two-month old plan to enter real estate ventures after 17 years of absence from this work. The study recommends contractors undertake the ventures.

Rental payments by tenants will also be collected through arrangements with a bank if the proposal is given the go-ahead; the 100 current employees undertaking this duty would be laid-off.

"We know that a team of managers drawn from the Agency and the Ministry are working on RHA's restructuring," Haregawi Kebede, president of the Agency's workers union, told Fortune. "We are under threat because our request for explanation is ignored by the director."

RHA was established a year after a proclamation that confiscated urban land and extra houses was declared in 1975 after the Derg's ascension to power. It was given the mandate to takeover and rent houses for 100 Br a month.

The Agency now collects rental payments, refurbishes and privatises houses, grossing 50 million Br in annual profit and has stayed as an autonomous organ despite tenants' complaints with the services it renders.

RHA along with the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) are accountable to MoWUD, which is structured in four bureaus, two offices and an institution.

"RHA needs restructuring," Arkebe Oqubay had told Fortune a month ago. "A decision will be made on the study in two months time."

The government has been maintaining that the Agency's output compared to the resources at its disposal is low as it has a huge workforce.

RHA finalised 366 houses and took over 815 houses confiscated by the military regime by the time it was created. Until 1991, the Agency invested 524.5 million Br on the construction and repair of houses and had 25,374 houses and 25 hostels under its supervision until 1993. However, the Agency lost 5,772 houses following the decision passed by the Council of Ministers to transfer houses located in regional states except those in Addis Abeba and Dire Dawa.

RHA lost part of the remaining 19,602 houses due to the demolishing works that have been carried out in Addis Abeba which dwindled houses under its supervision to 18,260. In 2006/07 alone, the Agency managed to collect 160 million Br from tenants.
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Nonetheless, the government has a plan to liquidate the Agency after it privatises all houses under its supervision.

An expert argues that the Agency does not have full-fledged information about the houses. It was just two months ago that it floated a tender to hire a bidder that would count the number of houses it administers.

"The restructuring is indeed necessary," the sector expert told Fortune. "However, the fate of the employees should be given due


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Carcieri: State will lay off 414


By STEVE PEOPLES and KATHERINE GREGG
Journal State House Bureau

PROVIDENCE — Four months after vowing to cut 1,000 state jobs, Governor Carcieri yesterday announced the broad outlines of a plan to lay off 414 state employees, trim the state’s temporary employment rolls by another 115 workers and wipe 487 empty jobs off the state’s books.

The personnel cuts Carcieri announced at a 2 p.m. State House news conference are aimed at saving an estimated $100 million next year. They are the centerpiece of the governor’s plan to avert a projected $200-million deficit in the state budget year that begins July 1.
Extra

M. Charles Bakst: Reality check: What Carcieri needs to do

Assembly plans to reconvene Oct. 30

PDF: Slides of the budget presentation, as released in advance by the governor's office

PDF: Letter explaining proposed changes in state worker health insurance co-pays

PDF: Read a transcript of the governor's speech

Your turn: React to the governor's proposed personnel cuts

The governor repeatedly refused to detail which state workers — and which state agencies — face job cuts. Carcieri would say only that the reductions would target “back office” workers, like those who work in “finance, accounting and a few lawyers.”

Layoff notices will go to the contract employees on Nov. 1, and full-fledged state employees on Nov. 15.

“This is going to be one of the hardest things that has ever been done in state government, but we must do it,” Carcieri told a standing-room-only audience that spilled out the doorway of the ornate State Room outside his State House office. “Either we do the hard work now, or, by doing nothing, we will pass on the burden to our children. They would inherit a nightmare.”

The carefully scripted news conference marks the attempt of a governor, with plummeting poll numbers, to take control of the Smith Hill spending debate three months before lawmakers return to the State House, and try to rehabilitate his image along the way, according to political observers.

The governor “is going to have to make the pitch of his life,” Brown University political science Prof. Darrell West said before the event.

Yesterday’s speech was not only accompanied by charts and graphs, but also stage directions to specifically reference the “6-inch binder” sitting on his deputy chief of staff J.R. Pagliarini’s lap. “I can assure you, over there is a binder 6 inches thick and that’s got all the details in it,” Carcieri said as Pagliarini lifted the binder for the crowd to see. “Every position has been identified by each department … but the particulars as to the individual people and positions affected will only be released as they have been notified. We want to be respectful to all who have been affected.”

Union leaders weren’t pleased, among them J. Michael Downey, president of the largest state employees union, Council 94 of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, who said the governor — having served notice of his layoff plans in June — has waited long enough to notify state employees affected by his plans. “People want to move on with their lives. It’s hard,” he said.

Sen. John J. Tassoni Jr., the only Democratic lawmaker in attendance yesterday and a business agent for Council 94, was less diplomatic.

Calling yesterday’s event “a dog-and-pony show,” Tassoni asked: “Does he have a plan? ... If that’s what he has in those binders, he should have let everyone [affected] know.”

Richard Ferruccio, president of the prison guards’ union, was “just disappointed that we don’t have more facts.”

“While the governor says that 414 people will find out in November,” Ferruccio said, “There are 10,000 right now that are worrying whether they are going to have a job and what frustrates us, from Corrections, is that for years we’ve been contending there is an incredible amount of waste at the Department of Corrections … Let’s cut the waste first. Tighten our belts. We’re not doing that.”

The governor glossed over the other elements of his deficit-reduction plan yesterday: $50 million in cuts to social-service programs and another $50 million in “labor contract savings” by raising copays on health insurance premiums and lengthening the 35-hour workweek. Some would require a change in law; others a change in contract.

While details remain sparse on how Carcieri intends to achieve this $50 million savings, his administration has been trying, behind the scenes, to get Council 94 to agree to mid-contract arbitration on health benefits.

In an Aug. 8 letter, Administration Director Beverly Najarian proposed raising the emergency copays for state workers from $25 to $150, urgent care copays from $10 to $75, special copays from $10 to $25 and the current prescription-drug tier structure from $5/12/30 to $7/25/40, depending on whether the medications are name-brand or generic. The state’s private-sector labor lawyer, Michael F. Kraemer, formally requested the appointment of an arbitrator.

The union went to court to protest. Superior Court Judge Allen P. Rubine issued a stay on Oct. 4. Council 94 executive director Dennis Grilli said: “We have a collective bargaining agreement in place and until we sit down and renegotiate [a new contract] the figures we have negotiated are going to stay in place.” Briefs were due today from both sides, with a decision anticipated on Nov. 19.

After a public-opinion survey by Brown University last month found his job-approval rating had plunged since January from 59 percent to 44 percent, Carcieri suggested the numbers were a reflection of voter concern “about our financial status.” He said people seeing teachers on strike, preemptive union strikes against his layoff plans, and headline after headline about the people affected by the legislature’s adoption of his proposals to lop thousands off the state’s child-care rolls leave people “feeling as though the state isn’t running itself well because of the budget.”

But if he is counting on his job-cutting plan to change public perception — and rehabilitate his own image — West yesterday said that providing the nitty-gritty details is crucial.

“I think people want details at this point,” West said. “He’s kind of raised expectations about the crisis and people want to know what these Draconian cuts are going to lead to and if we don’t know what departments are being cut, it’s real hard to evaluate what the impact will be on the state.”

West continued: “What’s at stake is the level of public support he has.” Until recently, Carcieri’s “major political strength has been his popularity.” With his approval rating now below 50 percent, West said, anything that undermines that further “would be catastrophic for his governorship. He’s not going to get legislation passed because of his close personal relations with legislators.” Meanwhile, labor laws are expected to complicate the governor’s staff-reduction plans.

Carcieri will have no problem eliminating 115 contract employees, who have no union protections. He’s counting on another 400 employees to leave or retire. But laying off 414 state employees would trigger contractual seniority provisions. The worker who gets the layoff notice may have the right to move to a vacant position or replace someone less senior elsewhere in state government, a process known as bumping.

A year after former Gov. Bruce Sundlun issued layoff notices to more than 500 state workers in 1991 to close a $265-million hole, only 269 state workers had left the payrolls as a direct result of the layoffs because of rounds and rounds of bumping. With more than 1,000 current vacancies, Carcieri has a head start.

Nonetheless, Carcieri and his team say it may take four to five months to effectuate his layoffs and cost $7.5 million in unemployment and healthcare benefits for displaced workers. Acknowledging that “behind every job is a person,” the governor said he has created an “employee support team” to help displaced employees. “Our goal is to help place as many people as possible in new job opportunities,” he said.

Council 94’s Downey said he was heartened to hear the governor say he “cares about workers” when “usually it’s always ‘public employees … we’re ruining the state.’ ” He said he was also happy the governor was “at least looking at the contract employees,” but said he wished he would look harder at this $31-million pool of workers.

Carcieri’s chief of staff Brian Stern has acknowledged the governor may be using a “conservative” estimate for the projected 2008-09 budget deficit. While his Budget Officer Rosemary Gallogly pegs it at $211.3 million, the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council placed it at $306.5 million in June.

House Finance Committee Chairman Steven M. Costantino believes the governor has “underestimated the deficit by as much as $100 million.” He said the job cuts “may be more difficult to realize than it appears at first glance. When it comes to reducing the workforce by attrition, some of the employees may serve in essential roles and these positions will have to be filled.”

Even without details, Kate Brewster, executive director of Rhode Island College’s Poverty Institute, said the outcome is predictable and “slashing public services while not addressing the tens of millions of dollars that are being lost to some of the recently enacted tax cuts and tax credit programs is really not fair to the average Rhode Island taxpayer … Capital gains tax cuts, personal income tax cuts, movie picture tax-cuts. We have to ask ourselves whether these are affordable.”

kgregg@projo.com


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AOL to layoff 2000 employees, starting tomorrow


About a year ago AOL announced plans to dramatically change its model. For more than a decade, this blog's parent company was best known for sending you CDs/coasters in the mail promising hundreds of hours of free internet service. But in the last year the company has been transitioning to a content/advertising service rather than an ISP.

As part of that change, it looks like AOL plans to layoff about 2,000 employees, or one fifth of its workforce. There's no word on exactly what departments will be hardest hit or what, if any impact this will have on AOL services. While we're owned by AOL, we don't know any more about the upcoming layoffs than you do.

We can tell you that Download Squad won't be affected. We'd like to think that's because Download Squad and the other Weblogs Inc web sites are the new face of AOL. But it also probably has something to do with the fact that most bloggers are contract workers, not full time employees.


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AOL layoff details revealed


IENNA, VA. -- A source close to AOL's upcoming layoffs has shared numbers exclusively with Valleywag. The expected body count? 4,000 -- a third of the estimated 12,000-person staff of the pain-wracked Internet giant. (Update: In a companywide email, CEO Randy Falco now says 2,000 employees out of a shrunken staff of 10,000 will be laid off.) The Dulles, Va. headquarters alone will see 400 jobs eliminated. Member Services, the organization responsible for AOL's rapidly defecting dialup customers, may get cut by as much as 90 percent. A data center in Reston, Va. is closing, with the facility up for sale, and another one in nearby Manassas could be on the block in the future. As deep as those cuts go, however, they may not be all. Remember the old adage "Measure twice, cut once?" Don't worry -- neither do AOL CEO Randy Falco and COO Ron Grant.

Falco and Grant, of course, run AOL in name only. Chaos and rumor are really the ones in charge. Having misjudged the extent to which they need to slash AOL's payroll, Falco and Grant may be preparing to follow tomorrow's widely expected layoffs with another round in December.

Not out of mercy, as Silicon Alley Insider seems to suggest, but out of sheer disorganization. Some departments, in the midst of one of the Internet giant's permanent-seeming reorganizations, have pleaded for more time in figuring out where to cut staff. Programming is one area on the bubble; despite the edge AOL has built in developing original content like the Live 8 concerts, largely under prior programming chief Kevin Conroy, some say that under the new regime, with Bill Wilson in charge, the department will be put on "maintenance mode."

Relatively safe -- for now, at any rate:

* Advertising sales Save for some rationalization as Advertising.com, Tacoda, and other groups get merged into the new Platform A unit, this area's seen as a strength for AOL.
* Products Email will get more attention.
* Recent acquisitions AOL's collected a number of interesting startups like Truveo in video search and Userplane in widgets, but it hasn't done much with them. Expect that to change.

That's the good news, small as it is. The bad news? Uncertainty and fear, the true bosses of AOL, will continue to reign until December.


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IBGE says industrial employment grew 0.2% in August


According to data released today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), seasonally adjusted industrial employment increased 0.2% in August compared to July. In relation to August of 2006 industrial employment increased 2.2%.

Employment in industry rose 1.6% in the first eight months of this year compared to the same period last year. Industrial employment was up 1.2% for the twelve months ending in August.


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GM's Holden to lay-off 600 workers


In the news: General Motors Corp.s GM Australian unit has announced last Monday that it will shed 15% of its workforce at its Elizabeth plant in South Australia State by the end of April. GM Holden Ltd. will offer voluntary redundancy packages to 600 workers who will be included in the 15% labor cut that GMs Australia subsidiary will implement at its plant, north of Adelaide. Such is the result of improved efficiency of its automated assembly which allows the auto maker to maintain production with fewer workers.

But according to some analysts the cutting down of workers by GMs Australian unit was due to the decline in sales of Holdens locally built Commodore range as Australian consumers opt for smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles.

According to Rod Keane Holden executive director, manufacturing operations in an interview with reporters in Adelaide, If Holden is to remain as one of the worlds most competitive and flexible plants we need to be as efficient as possible. And at this stage we have more resources than we need to achieve that.?Holden announced the job cut at a meeting participated by both white and blue collar workers. The automaker has given the workers until March 21 to decide whether they would accept the redundancy and retraining packages offered by the automaker.

Keane also added that no jobs would be lost at Holdens Melbourne engine manufacturing plant. It should be noted that Holden has already laid off 1400 jobs at its Elizabeth plant in August of 2005. Holden has currently 4050 employees and will be reduced further by shedding 600 workers resulting to 3450 workers at the plant. Keane also said that it is not guaranteed if there wont be any more job cuts in the future. You cant rule out anything in this business, obviously the market changes. We can never guarantee what the future holds.?br />
The decision for the job cut was also due to the decision of the company to end its production of the older VZ Commodore range and to focus on the production of its new VE models which according to the automaker is much easier to make.

For the past years Holden has invested A$532 million in the plant which has been described by Holden as one of the worlds most flexible and efficient plants. It is expected that production output will decline after the layoff from the current 620 cars to 520 cars a day and will return to its maximum capacity of 620 cars by October. Keane also said that they are expecting to produce 145,000 cars for this year.

The layoffs will surely humiliate Federal Industry, Tourism and Resources Minister Ian Macfarlane who even went to Detroit early this year just to report to GMworlds largest automaker and producer of quality GM fuel pumps --- and Ford Motor Co. that Australia is expecting more in return for the A$7.3 billion Automotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme that would support the industry through 2015.

In a statement made by Macfarlane last Monday, Globally, the automotive industry is going through challenging times and the Australian industry is not immune to this. Holden is recognizing this and is making the difficult commercial decisions it needs to make to stay competitive in a tough environment.?br />

Similarly the layoff of the 600 workers will definitely hurt the federal Liberal National coalition government during the election in South Australia State where Holden is currently the largest private employer. The Elizabeth plant is situated in the seat of Wakefield which is held with a 0.7% margin while most of the plants workers live in nearby Makin electorate which held by a 1% margin. The car making industry of Australia employs about 70,000 workers which represents about 0.8% of Australias total workforce as of August of 2006.
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Tembec shuts mills; Mill workers in Cochrane and Kapuskasing given layoff notices


Posted By Michael Peeling
Posted 3 days ago

A major forestry company has laid off 200 mill workers in two Northeastern Ontario towns as it struggles to operate under difficult market conditions.

Tembec Inc. announced it will, for an indefinite period, shut down one of three paper machines currently running at Kapuskasing's Spruce Falls mill on Oct. 23, putting 50 people out of work, while all 150 workers at the sawmill in Cochrane will be off the job starting Oct. 19.

Tracy Dottori, a Tembec spokeswoman, said all of the employees were told of the shutdowns in advance of Friday's public announcement.

While the company has no set plan to aid its laid-off employees in place yet, Dottori said Tembec is working on on a plan while it constantly reassesses the viability of reopening the Cochrane mill and restarting the Kapuskasing paper machine.

"We're looking at a lot of possibilities right now," Dottori said.

"We're working on a plan, but I can't give away many of the details until it's in place. We'll continue to assess how to best help our employees during this time."

Dottori cited significant declining newsprint consumption in North America, high fibre costs, particularly for wood chip residue, and the strong Canadian dollar versus the American dollar as factors that have led to the newsprint machine shutdown.

"A decrease in the number of U.S. market housing starts has had a big impact (in Cochrane), and so have lumber demand and pricing, both of which are poor," she said.

Cochrane Mayor Lawrence Martin said the town has met with re-elected MPP David Ramsay (Liberal - Timiskaming-Cochrane) about government programs that could help the workers get through the layoff, which is estimated to have an impact on the local economy to the tune of a $7-million annual loss.

"We were not officially expecting the layoff, but we could see the writing on the wall," Martin said. "It was only a matter of time."

Town council plans on meeting with union officials to determine other ways the mill workers could be helped, Martin said.

Martin is optimistic that at least a few people may keep their jobs supplying wood chips from the mill to the Abitibi-Consolidated pulp and paper mill in Iroquois Falls.

Kapuskasing Mayor Alan Spacek said the town is bracing for the spin-off impact of 50 job losses, which he believes will multiply three-fold at least.

"It's frustrating for us," Spacek said. "(The mill) went from being stable in August to where we are today. (Tembec) was even predicting a bit of growth."

The weakened U.S. dollar has destroyed the possibility of growth for now, according to Spacek.

"It's certainly going to have a negative impact on the morale of the community, but we need to remain optimistic that it's a temporary situation." said the mayor. "The dollar is going through an unusual adjustment."

Spacek said government needs to be pressed to provide financial assistance to the forest products industry, aid in making mills more efficient, and help create a market environment that encourages new and more diverse product lines.

As a back-up plan, the Town of Kapuskasing has been looking at getting into mineral investments with the help of the Timmins Economic Development Corporation and its resident geologist Robert Calhoun.

Deposits of silica, clay, slate and soapstone have been identified in the region as starting points for potential investment.

Lorraine Crickard's husband, a 30-year employee of the Cochrane sawmill, will lose his job, at least temporarily, but she is more concerned about workers who have only been at the Tembec mill for a few years.

"It's definitely going to affect the community and all the companies that service the mill, but it's young families that still have kids to support and no pension to rely on," Crickard said. "What are they going to do?"

Crickard's children have all grown up and left home, but the couple learned the importance of preparing for the worst when her husband was laid off the first time less than two years ago.

He took another job to make ends meet, but eventually returned to the sawmill.

Dottori said it is far too early to predict the future of the Cochrane and Kapuskasing mills.


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Schneider National Announces Job Cuts


Schneider National says it's adjusting its staff and laying off less than one-percent of its workforce.

Schneider employs about 22,000 people, which means the layoff will affect fewer than 220.

In a statement Friday, the Ashwaubenon-based company said the layoffs are part of a regular realignment of staff to reflect customer needs and economic realities.


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JPMorgan to Layoff Employees in Fixed Income Units, Person Says


By Elizabeth Hester

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third- largest U.S. bank, is eliminating as much as 10 percent of the jobs in groups that financed leveraged buyouts and packaged debt into securities, a person familiar with the situation said.

The two units are part of the New York-based firm's investment banking division, which employed 25,356 people as of June 30, according to the company's quarterly report.

``We are making modest staff reductions in areas where we expect lower volumes going forward, including leveraged finance and structured credit,'' spokesman Brian Marchiony said.

JPMorgan is following UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's two largest banks, which said this month they would eliminate 1,820 jobs after a global credit market contraction led investors to shun high-risk, high-yield debt. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein estimated in an Oct. 5 report that JPMorgan, led by Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, may have to write down leveraged loan and mortgage-related holdings by about $2 billion.

``The boom times are over and they're taking actions to get out in front of the numbers,'' said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Chicago job placement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. ``Jamie Dimon doesn't defer his actions and he's quick to make changes when results aren't there.''

In the first nine months of the year, JPMorgan was the third-largest underwriter of structured debt such as asset-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and residential and commercial mortgage bonds, according to Asset-Backed Alert.

Credit Suisse, UBS

The bank sold $134 billion of the debt, about $1 billion less than New York-based Citigroup Inc. and within $400 million of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, the industry newsletter said.

Credit Suisse said Oct. 2 it would cut about 170 jobs in its investment banking unit, about half in fixed-income. Earlier, the firm eliminated 150 positions from its mortgage-backed securities department.

UBS is shedding 1,500 jobs after a third-quarter loss, including about 70 U.S. employees who work with mortgage-backed, asset-backed and collateralized debt obligations.

JPMorgan shares fell 25 cents to $46.66 today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They're down 3.4 percent this year. The firm is slated to report quarterly earnings Oct. 17.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Hester in New York at ehester@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 11, 2007 17:30 EDT


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Delphi to lay off 180 in Rochester


Patrick Flanigan
Staff writer


(October 11, 2007) — Delphi Corp. intends to temporarily lay off about 180 Rochester-area workers next week.

“As schedules and volume fluctuate, we will alter our production staff,” spokesman Lindsey Williams said today from the company’s headquarters in Troy, Mich. “It’s a week-to-week layoff. It could last a week or several months.”

Delphi produces automotive parts and employs about 1,600 workers in Rochester and Henrietta.

A large portion of the company’s Rochester-area product line is for General Motors Corp., so the rise and fall of that company’s fortunes will have a significant effect on local workers until Delphi further expands its base of non-GM clients, Williams said.

PFLANIGA@DemocratandChronicle.com


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Stanley Furniture announces layoff of 250 employees


By REX BOWMAN
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER

Stanley Furniture Co., Henry County's largest employer, announced yesterday that it is getting rid of 250 employees.

The company cited a continuing industrywide slowdown in business as the reason for the layoffs.

Stanley currently employs 1,300 workers in Martinsville and Henry.

The layoffs will begin in December, with some of the cuts occurring in the Martinsville production plant and others in the company's Stanleytown warehouse.

The layoffs are the latest in a decade-long string of job losses in the area's once-booming furniture industry. Coupled with the loss of textile jobs in the past decade, the decline has led to long stretches of double-digit unemployment in the area.

In August, according to the Virginia Employment Commission's latest figures, Henry's jobless rate was 6.4 percent and Martinsville's was 8.9 percent. Statewide, unemployment stood at 3.1 percent.

In a letter to county officials yesterday, the company said it is filing a petition with the U.S. Department of Labor for assistance that would make the 250 laid-off employees eligible for training programs, job-search allowances and income support.

Stanley's move prompted H.G. Vaughn, chairman of the Henry Board of Supervisors, to issue a statement telling the 250 employees that the county is "going all out" to persuade new companies to move to the area.

Stanley anticipates the first round of layoffs will begin Dec. 10.
Contact Rex Bowman at (540) 344-3612 or rbowman@timesdispatch.com.


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KENWORTH TO LAYOFF MORE WORKERS


By LOREN GENSON
Gazette Staff Writer

More employees at Kenworth Truck Co. in Chillicothe have been notified they will lose their job at the end of the week, and a two-week shut down of plant operations is set to begin Monday.

An official number of layoffs has not been confirmed. Plant manager Scott Blue referred comments to Kathy McCloud, a spokeswoman for Kenworth's parent company PACCAR Inc. McCloud did not answer questions about the layoff and failed to return a phone call to confirm the layoff letters.

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In a letter obtained by the Chillicothe Gazette, Area Human Resources Manager Brian Putnam states the reason for layoffs.
"Due to a recent decline in the heavy-duty truck market, we have been forced to reduce our work force through layoffs," Putnam's letter states.

The Chillicothe Kenworth plant announced a first round of layoffs this winter shortly after new emissions laws took effect in 2007. The new emissions laws increased the cost for new trucks and many clients opted to buy trucks before the change.

At an investment luncheon Aug. 16, Scott Blue confirmed fall layoffs but said he hoped to hire back workers at the beginning of next year.

"We're hoping to turn it around by the first of the year, but you just can't be sure," Blue said at the luncheon.

In addition to the layoffs, a memo on the Chillicothe plant given to departing workers stated the plant would be closed Oct. 15-19, and 22-26. Additionally, the plant will be closed from Dec. 24 through Jan. 4. Four of those winter dates will be considered closures, and the others will count as paid holidays, the memo said.

Departing employees will receive 80 hours of notice pay in addition to normal separation pay, according to the memo.

(Genson can be reached at 772-9369 or via e-mail at lgenson@nncogannett.com)


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Unemployment at 33-year low


AUSTRALIA'S unemployment rate has fallen to a 33-year low of 4.2 per cent, giving the Howard Government further scope to campaign on its success in creating jobs.

Prime Minister John Howard this week said he wanted Australia to become a full-employment economy, and that the election would be a "referendum on which party is best equipped to achieve this goal".

Economists say the unemployment rate could drop to 3 per cent early next year.

The downside for the Government is that the tight labour market makes another election-year rate rise likely.

The September labour force figures show Victoria's unemployment rate is also at a record low, falling to 4.2 per cent — the lowest since the Bureau of Statistics started recording monthly figures in 1978.

The jobs figures show an extra 13,000 jobs created in the month — below market expectations of a gain of 20,000 — taking total employment to 10.5 million. Full-time employment fell by 17,200, but this was offset by a rise in part-time employment of 30,100. The participation rate fell slightly to 65 per cent.

The Coalition argues that the jobs growth is a result of its strong economic management and that WorkChoices has kept wage pressures contained.

Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey said that since March last year, when the Howard Government introduced the industrial relations laws, 430,700 jobs had been created. "Ultimately having a strong economy means that you have more jobs," he said.

But Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd argued that the growth in jobs had been driven by the resources boom. He said the Government wanted to take responsibility for positive jobs growth but had failed to take responsibility for higher interest rates.

Economists say rates could be increased again as early as next month if inflation data to be released on October 24 is above the Reserve Bank's target. Citi's director of economics, Stephen Halmarick, said the unemployment rate would be steady for the next few months but would move below 4 per cent by early next year.

"It will have a three in front of it in early 2008," he said. "The Reserve Bank's got more work to do. We think there will be two rate rises by early next year.

"The Reserve Bank has a view that wages pressures are higher than the official numbers are showing, and there's an argument that the Government's industrial relations changes could be helping as well (in containing pressures)."

Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist Rory Robertson said a sharp rise in the dollar would make the Reserve Bank more cautious about increasing rates again, but if the underlying inflation figures were 0.9 per cent in the quarter, it would have no choice but to raise rates. The dollar was at a 23-year high last night, reaching US90.57¢.


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Employment expected to rise solidly


October 10, 2007
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Another strong labour force report is expected, which will add to the risk of higher interest rates, possibly as early as next month.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data was expected to show a further 20,000 rise in employment for the month of September, on top of the 31,900 established in August, economists said.

Some 170,000 jobs have been created so far this year.

The jobless rate is forecast to remain steady at a 33-year low of 4.3 per cent for a fifth straight month despite this expected employment increase.

This was because more people were likely to become officially unemployed searching for a job under the government's Welfare to Work scheme, economists said.

Prime Minister John Howard said earlier this week he wanted Australia to become a full-employment economy and that the election would be a "referendum on which party is best equipped to achieve this goal".



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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

UTStarcom to slash 700 jobs


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Report: BBC to cut up to 2,800 jobs


Chrysler to deepen salaried cuts


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Foreigners to face employment restrictions in south China province


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Report: Foreigners taking new British jobs


What Do Law Graduates Really Earn?


The National Association for Law Placement (NALP) is the professional organization for law school career services offices and large employer recruiting offices.

One of NALP's missions is to collect employment data from the nation's law schools, analyze it, and issue reports to help law schools, law students, and legal employers see a national legal employment picture.This month, in its monthly bulletin, NALP reported on the salary figures from over 22,000 law graduates in the class of 2006.

For the class of 2006, the vast majority of graduates started work in small firms of 50 or fewer lawyers, or in non-firm settings, such as government, public interest, or business. Just 20% of all law students in the country took jobs in firms of more than 100 lawyers.

The earnings reality for class of 2006 graduates is that there were two clusters of salaries, one in the $40,000-$50,000 range (the larger cluster) and the other in the $135,000 range. The median salary was $62,000, meaning half of the salaries were higher and half were lower than $62,000.A picture really is worth a thousand words.



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Sunday, October 07, 2007

London city predicted to lose 6,500 jobs in 2008


Job Time Party Hats


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US Airways To Cut Service, 450 Pittsburgh Jobs


Bear Stearns cut 310 jobs on mortgage business


Cadbury to cut 700 British jobs, outsource to Poland


U.S. job cuts slow 9.7 percent


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Morgan Stanley to trim mortgage business, 600 jobs


Saturday, October 06, 2007

Germany: Karmann to lay off 1,770 workers


Karmann has announced that it will cut 1,770 jobs across its two main facilities due to an order slowdown.


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Employment Data Show No Weakness


The September employment data could end recession fears. Payrolls rose a slightly larger than expected 110,000. At least as important, the 4,000 decline in August that caused so much angst was revised to an 89,000 increase.

There will be plenty of talk that the payroll increases the past two months are not large. They are below the 200,000 or so monthly gains that used to be common during strong economic growth. That is indeed true, but those past gains were achieved when there was rising participation in the labor force.

The September increase represents a 0.08% increase on a base of 138,155,000. That is almost exactly a 1% annual rate of increase. That is consistent with population growth. In conjunction with 1% to 2% productivity growth, it correlates to 2% to 3% real GDP growth.

This is not a weak number. It reflects moderate economic growth trends.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. This was a bit more than expected and follows a 0.3% August increase. The year-over-year increase rose to 4.1% from 4.0%. The 4% rate of increase in wage gains, coupled with 1% employment growth, increases consumer spending power at a 5% annual rate. That is plenty to produce 2% to 3% real growth in consumer spending.

These numbers don't show significant weakness in any respect. There is no reason for the Fed to ease based on these data. In fact, the pickup in wage rates and the continued tight labor market conditions may lead to talk that the Fed 1/2% rate cut was too much too soon.

In our opinion, it is more important for the stock market that a recession not develop than that the Fed cut rates further. These numbers are bullish for the stock market in that respect.

--Dick Green, Briefing.com


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U of I Study Finds IL Lost Jobs for Second Consecutive Month


URBANA – The state of Illinois lost jobs for the second consecutive month in August, according to the September Monthly Illinois Economic Review. However, the 900 jobs lost were far fewer than the 12,600 jobs that were lost in the previous month. The July figure has been revised from an earlier reported loss of 11,500 jobs.

The Monthly Economic Review is a compilation of state employment and economic data, produced by economist Geoffrey Hewings of the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs. The nation as a whole lost about 4,000 jobs in August, but the other states in the Midwest (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) added 27,700 jobs, a growth rate of .14 percent.
Despite the two consecutive months of losses, the state has added 46,900 jobs since August 2006, a growth rate of .79 percent. This compares with an increase of 47,300 jobs in the other six Midwest states combined, a rate of .24 percent. Nationally, nearly 1.6 million jobs have been created in the past 12 months.

The Chicago Business Activity Index, which is based on leading national indicators, was negative in August for the tenths consecutive month. The CBAI, the data for which lags behind the employment data in the Economic Review, traces the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the future. The CBAI continues to suggest that economic growth in the region will be below its historical trend, in large part because of continued slowing of economic growth nationally.

The Monthly Illinois Economic Review also ranks the non-farm employment growth rates for the state’s 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Data for this ranking lags the overall state ranking by one month and indicate that Peoria showed the largest growth rate for July at .27 percent. Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul was second with a job-growth rate of .18 percent.

The Monthly Illinois Economic Review is produced by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs as part of its mission to follow and report on the Illinois Economy. IGPA also produces the University of Illinois Flash Index, the first monthly barometer of the state’s economic condition, usually available on the first business day of each month. Details from the Illinois Economic Review, as well as the September Flash Index, are available at http://www.igpa.uillinois.edu/.



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Jobs: A September Shocker


Solid payroll growth and a reversal of the previous month's decline eased worries about an economic slowdown. But rising wages may signal inflation headaches


Did the Federal Reserve really need to cut rates a hefty 50 basis points on Sept. 18? Policymakers' case for a jumbo easing was diminished by the September U.S. employment report released on Oct. 5. While the gain in headline nonfarm payrolls of 110,000 on the month was right in line with market expectations, the real shocker came in the revision to August's figure. Recall that the decline of 4,000 jobs originally reported for August was seen as the catalyst for the central bank's big rate cut. Well, that figure was revised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to a gain of 89,000 in the September report.

Action Economics thinks the Oct. 5 report powerfully refuted expectations of a rapidly softening economy, by revising away much of the weakness in the August report and returning to the solid levels of job growth typical of the current expansion in September. And another hefty round of wage increases in September provided a not-so-subtle reminder of the two-sided risk that faces Fed policymakers, as inflation continues to percolate.

The report no doubt occasioned some "I told you so" reactions from market observers who believed that the Fed's Sept. 18 cut fell into the "one and done" category. Treasury prices fell, and yields rose on Oct. 5 as the likelihood of rate cuts at the Fed's Oct. 30-31 meeting receded. In contrast, equities ramped higher and the dollar managed to recover somewhat on the day from its recent weakness vs. other major currencies.

Positive Effect on Other Indicators

Looking elsewhere in the September report, the unemployment rate ticked higher, to 4.70% from 4.64%, while the household employment measure surged 463,000, following the 316,000 drop in August that appeared troublesome at the time. The average work week held at a solid 33.8 hours. Average hourly earnings increased a hefty 0.4% (median 0.3%), which left year-over-year earnings growth at 4.3%. This matches the cyclical high set in April, 2006.

As for industry payroll growth, manufacturing dropped 18,000, construction declined 14,000, private service payrolls rose 106,000, and government payrolls rose 37,000. The bulk of the upward revision to August was found in government payrolls, with a current gain of 57,000 compared to the initially reported loss of 28,000.

The strength in the September report has positive implications for other key economic data for the month. We now assume a 0.5% personal income gain that will leave disposable income growth bouncing to the 5.9% area in the third quarter, following the bonus-related gyration between the first and second quarters of this year of 9.1% and 4.8%, respectively. We now project a 0.1% September industrial production gain that will leave this measure poised for a 4.1% third-quarter growth rate. This follows rates of 3.6% in the second quarter and 1.1% in the first.

Growth Revisions Smaller than Projected

The 0.1% rise in the September hours-worked index leaves this aggregate growing at a 1.2% rate in the third quarter, following 2.1% growth in the second and a 1.1% rate in the first. The 3.8% second-quarter final gross domestic product growth rate outpaced hours-worked growth by 1.7%, and our third-quarter GDP forecast of 3.0% suggests almost the same mark-up in growth from hours worked.

The drop in construction employment in September, but with a 0.1% rise in construction hours worked, has boosted our September construction spending forecast to –0.2%, following the surprising 0.2% August rise.

The BLS also said it estimates a downward revision of 297,000 in payroll growth between April, 2006, and March, 2007. Although this revision is downward and translates to a decrease of 25,000 per month over the twelve months ending in March, the revision is smaller than many economists had expected to see earlier this year. It now appears that the payroll back-revisions in 2008 will still leave a general out-performance of job growth through late 2006 and early 2007, though to a smaller degree than reported previously. Productivity growth will likely be boosted by around 0.2% over the period to offset the lower payroll trajectory.

Inflation Risks Continue

For the Fed, the September jobs report provides cover for the unchanged policy stance we expect at the Oct. 30-31 FOMC meeting. And the hefty 0.4% September wage gain, and 4.3% year-over-year increase, will heighten concerns that Bernanke & Co. may have used too much policy firepower at the Sept. 18 meeting, as many inflation-wary Fed watchers, including ourselves, thought at the time.

Of course, we still aren't out of the woods with regard to credit market turmoil, but the risks of a slowdown have been reduced by the September jobs data. And the strength in wages reminds us that the upside inflation risks to the economy are still intact.

Englund is chief economist for Action Economics.





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