The Job Market: November, 2008
On Tuesday, The United States elects a President
Whether Senator Obama or Senator McCain is elected is irrelevant as far as the job market in 2009 because plans are being put into place NOW by the private sector based upon what they know NOW and not based upon what they hope will be in place in 2009.
What do we know now?
We know that unemployment is now over 6% and, in many states, approaching 7%.
We know that there was a liquidity crisis in the banking system based upon the confluence of a number of events that has resulted in massive international interventions in the banking system to keep it from collapsing globally.
We also know that this is the time of year that companies that are on a calendar year basis are working on their budgets.
We know that layoffs worldwide are increasing as firms try to ride out "the hurricane' that in the US has been the disappearance of the consumer from spending and, internationally has been a slowdown in all forms of spending.
We know that fiscal and monetary policy take " a while" to affect change and that the financial services has been intimately involved with solving the current crisis.
From here on, everything I write is speculation.
I don't see that there is a CFO or corporate executive in their right mind who is going to approve much in the way of new hiring in 2009. If you were in their shoes, you might not even approve much in the way of replacement hiring, let alone authorize any expansion.
If you are one of the almost 7% who is unemployed, I encourage you to hustle to find work or a temporary assignment or something reasonable to your career sooner, rather than later because, frankly, I suspect next year will get "ugly."
I believe that, like in the post 9/11 world New York was the center of the storm, New York, because of the importance of the financial services industry to its financial well-being, will gain be the center of the storm.
If you are someone in the New York area, I encourage you to open yourself up to jobs that involve heavy travel or even relocation. Why? All the major companies in the New York area that we associate with significant hiring and great paying jobs are in financial services and are either not thinking about hiring, laying off large numbers of people or only hiring replacements at what they describe as being "fair salaries" (interpret that as salaries like they would pay in Hartford or to someone who they would hire off-shore).
Why?
Because they can. There is no competition. Wouldn't you do the same thing?
In other parts of the country, the layoff notices are getting larger and more frequent (you can read layoff notices of 100 or more in TheJobMarketBlog.com). They are occurring in almost all sectors of the economy.
State governments are starting to plead their case to Congress for rescues
The automobile industry and airlines are asking for help
The airlines were helped in the post 9/11 world. I expect they will show up soon, too.
State and municipal government workers are starting to be cut (why do they always start with teachers? Why can't they just fire one secretary, administrative assistant and/or commissioner per building).
No matter, the first half to three quarters of next year looks tough for the economy, both in the US and abroad. While the various stimuli start to take hold, few firms will be hiring fewer people.
and here is the hard thing to say to you:
Some of you are going to lose your careers unless you make the difficult choices BEFORE your finances move to critical condition.
Labels: 2008, November, The Job Market
